Crude Oil Prices Forecast: Conflicting Outlooks From IEA, EIA, and OPEC Confuse the Market

Oil traders are facing a big problem: the world’s top energy agencies can’t agree on where crude oil prices are heading. The International Energy Agency (IEA), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are all offering very different views on oil supply, demand, and prices for 2025 and beyond.

These mixed signals are making it harder for traders to make smart decisions. Whether oil prices rise or fall in the coming months depends on which forecast turns out to be more accurate.

Richmond Lee, CFA and Senior Market Analyst at PU Prime, commented:

“Oil prices remain caught between bearish structural drivers and short-term geopolitical risks. Longer-term pressures such as rising electric vehicle adoption and expectations of higher supply continue to weigh on sentiment.

At the same time, renewed tensions in the Russia–Ukraine conflict are injecting volatility. Reports of drone strikes on the Kursk nuclear power plant in western Russia have heightened uncertainty, even as U.S. President Donald Trump pursues ceasefire discussions. These developments highlight the fragile nature of the geopolitical backdrop, with diplomatic progress or escalation likely to drive oil price swings in the near term.

With fundamentals leaning toward oversupply but geopolitics keeping risk premiums elevated, crude oil is expected to remain range-bound until clearer direction emerges. Traders should watch ceasefire negotiations and U.S. energy updates closely for potential catalysts.”

Major Forecast Split in 2025 Demand Outlook

The biggest disagreement is about how much oil the world will use next year. The IEA thinks global oil demand will grow by just 680,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2025. OPEC believes demand will grow almost twice as fast—by 1.3 million b/d. The EIA sits in the middle, with a forecast of 980,000 b/d.

This matters for prices. The EIA expects Brent crude to fall from $71 in July 2025 to $58 by the end of the year, and even lower in early 2026—possibly to $50. That’s because the EIA sees oil supply rising faster than demand, which could lead to large stockpiles of unused oil.

The IEA agrees with that view, expecting global oil inventories to grow by hundreds of thousands of barrels per day over the next two years. OPEC disagrees and says the market could actually face a shortage in early 2026.

OPEC Boosts Output, Adding Downward Pressure

In August, OPEC made a surprise move by increasing oil production faster than expected. It plans to fully end its voluntary supply cuts by September 2025, a full year earlier than planned. In September alone, it’s adding over 500,000 b/d to the market.

OPEC says it is doing this to prevent future shortages. It claims that inventories are already low and bringing more oil to market now is a smart move. But critics say this could make oversupply worse in the short term and push prices down further.

This supply boost is one reason why traders are leaning bearish for the next few quarters.

Forecast Methods Are Causing Confusion

One reason for the disagreement is that the agencies use different methods to create their forecasts. The IEA has changed its past demand estimates several times this year. That has made its future projections less stable. OPEC and the EIA have made fewer changes.

There’s also a big difference in how they view China. The IEA expects China to add only 90,000 b/d in new demand in 2025, mainly because of electric vehicles and public transport. OPEC and the EIA both expect over 200,000 b/d, saying China’s demand is still strong.

The same split exists for developed countries like the U.S. and Europe. The IEA expects demand to fall. OPEC sees small gains. These disagreements make it harder for traders to trust any single forecast.

Oil Prices Forecast: Bearish in the Short Term

With more oil coming to market and agencies expecting slower demand, the short-term forecast leans bearish. The EIA’s price outlook is especially weak, and OPEC’s added supply only adds to that concern.

Traders who agree with the surplus view may look at strategies like short positions or put options to benefit from falling prices. But this isn’t a one-way bet.

Despite these bearish views, the futures market still shows backwardation—when short-term prices are higher than long-term ones. This usually suggests tight supply. It’s a signal that many in the market are not fully buying the surplus story.

Geopolitical Risk Still Matters

Geopolitical tension is also a wild card. In June 2025, a brief conflict between Israel and Iran sent oil prices up to $74. About 20% of global oil moves through the Strait of Hormuz, so any disruption there can lift prices fast.

The IEA gives more weight to these risks in its models. OPEC focuses more on how much oil can still be produced quickly if needed.

Long-Term Forecasts Are Even More Split

Looking beyond 2026, the disagreement gets even larger. The IEA thinks global oil demand will hit a high point around 105.5 million b/d by 2030 and then fall. OPEC says demand could keep rising to 122.9 million b/d by 2050.

The EIA again offers a middle view. It expects U.S. oil production to peak around 2027 or 2028, and then slowly decline. But exports are likely to remain strong.

Each agency also has different oil price predictions for 2050. The EIA sees a range from $47 to $155 per barrel, depending on how fast the energy transition moves and how much new oil is produced.

OPEC argues that even with new technology, the world will still need heavy investment—about $18.2 trillion—to replace old oil fields and meet future demand. The IEA warns that we could end up with too much supply, causing prices to crash and making many oil projects unprofitable.

What Traders Should Watch Next

For speculators, this confusing outlook means it’s better to watch real-world data than rely too heavily on any single forecast. Pay attention to:

• Weekly U.S. inventory reports
• China’s fuel demand and industrial activity
• OPEC monthly production numbers
• Electric vehicle sales trends

J.P. Morgan currently expects Brent crude to average $66 in 2025 and $58 in 2026. They say that even under a pro-oil U.S. government, there is no strong policy support to keep prices high.

However, if demand in Asia picks up faster than expected or if supply outages hit, prices could rise quickly.

Conclusion: Short-Term Bearish, Long-Term Unclear

In the short term, the crude oil market looks weak. There’s more oil coming online, weaker demand growth, and signs that prices may fall into 2026. That gives speculators a bearish bias heading into the next few quarters.

But the long-term outlook is still wide open. If OPEC’s view proves correct, current underinvestment in oil production could lead to price spikes in the 2030s. If the IEA is right, supply could overwhelm demand, pushing prices lower for years.

For now, traders should focus on short-term signals, keep risk levels under control, and stay alert for signs that the market might turn in either direction.