Dax Index News: Ceasefire Lifts DAX—Forecast Eyes Break Above 24,000

DAX Soars as President Trump Declares Iran-Israel Ceasefire: What’s Next for the DAX?

President Trump boosted demand for risk assets by announcing an Iran-Israel ceasefire. The DAX jumped 1.98% to 23,731 in early trading on Tuesday, June 24.

On June 23, Trump announced an Iran-Israel truce, stating:

“It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED!”

WTI crude oil prices tumbled 9.22% on June 23, closing at $66.775 as investors cut bets on Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz and disrupting oil supply. WTI crude oil prices continued to trend lower on June 24, lifting sentiment. Falling oil prices would dampen inflationary pressures, renewing hopes of further ECB rate cuts.

Ahead of the announcement, Daniel Kral, a Europe macro specialist, remarked on energy prices and inflation, stating:

“Tensions in the Middle East mean a higher geopolitical risk premium on EU gas prices (reliant on LNG imports also via Hormuz Strait), up by 20% versus May and y/y. Energy prices have been the main disinflationary driver pulling latest ECB inflation forecast for 2026 to just 1.6%.”

Notably, the retreat in oil prices could reinforce the ECB’s inflation projections.

Sector Performance

The Middle East ceasefire boosted demand for auto, bank, and tech stocks. Mercedes-Benz Group rallied 3.22%, while BMW, Porsche, and Volkswagen also posted early gains.

Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank gained 1.48 and 2.91%, respectively, while Infineon Technologies jumped 3.58%.

Meanwhile, Rheinmetall tumbled 3.82% as investors reacted to the Iran-Israel truce.

German Business Sentiment in Focus

During Tuesday’s European session, business sentiment trends will require consideration. Economists forecast Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index to rise from 87.5 in May to 88.3 in June.

A higher reading could boost demand for DAX-listed stocks. Improving sentiment may increase employment, potentially driving consumer spending. A pickup in consumer spending would bolster the German economy. However, investors may brush aside weaker numbers as the focus remains on Middle East developments and trade headlines.

Trade Headlines Pivotal for the DAX

While the Iran-Israel ceasefire sends the DAX higher, US-EU trade developments remain crucial for near-term trends. The US and the EU have cut tariffs until July 9, when a failure to reach a trade deal could bring full reciprocal US tariffs on EU goods into effect.

Stalled talks would likely impact export-focused DAX-listed stocks, while progress toward a deal could lift risk appetite.

Wall Street Advances on Middle East Developments

US markets closed with gains on June 23 as investors reacted to reports of Iran keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. The Nasdaq Composite Index and S&P 500 advanced 0.94% and 0.96%, respectively, while the Dow rose 0.89%.

Rising expectations of a Q3 Fed rate cut contributed to Monday’s gains. FOMC members have voiced support for a July rate cut. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman reportedly stated:

“It is time to consider adjusting the policy rate. Should inflation pressures remain contained, I would support lowering the policy rate as soon as our next meeting in order to bring it closer to its neutral setting and to sustain a healthy labor market.”

Last week, Fed’s Christopher Waller downplayed the potential impact of tariffs on inflation, signaling support for further policy easing.

US Consumer Sentiment and the Fed in Focus

Later in the European session, US consumer sentiment data could influence risk sentiment. Economists expect the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index will rise to 99.8 in June, up from 98 in May. Better-than-expected numbers could signal a pickup in consumer spending, potentially fueling inflation. Conversely, a lower reading could fuel speculation about a US recession, supporting a more dovish policy stance.

Fed speakers will affect rate cut bets. Fed Chair Powell will give testimony on Capitol Hill. Insights into the Fed’s policy outlook could be crucial for risk assets.

Near-Term Outlook

The DAX’s direction hinges on developments in the Middle East, US-EU trade talks, and ECB commentary.

• Bearish Scenario: Renewed Iran-Israel tensions, stalled US-EU trade talks, or hawkish central bank signals. Under these scenarios, the DAX could drop toward 25,000, exposing the 23,000 support level.
• Bullish Scenario: Progress toward a US-Iran nuclear deal and dovish central bank cues may drive the DAX toward 24,000.

DAX Technical Indicators

Daily Chart

After the Iran-Israel news-fueled rally, the DAX trades above the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), signaling bullish momentum.

A breakout above 23,750 could signal a move toward 24,000. A sustained move above 24,000 may enable the bulls to target the June 5 record high of 24,479.

On the downside, a drop below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) could expose the crucial 23,000 support level.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 52.77 indicates the DAX has room to climb to 24,479 before entering overbought conditions (RSI > 70).

Final Thoughts

Volatility could persist as Middle East developments, trade headlines, and central bank chatter influence sentiment. Fiscal developments from Berlin could further influence sentiment.

Traders should stay attuned to technical and fundamental drivers and consult our economic calendar.