Dollar Index Holding Pivot Support Ahead of Fed Minutes

The U.S. Dollar is trading lower against a basket of major currencies on Wednesday as investors lightened up safe-haven positions after reports said Russia was withdrawing some troops from Ukraine’s border.

Nonetheless, traders remained cautious after U.S. President Joe Biden warned that more than 150,000 Russian troops were still in a “threatening position”.

At 15:00 GMT, March U.S. Dollar Index futures are trading 95.940, down 0.053 or -0.06%. The Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund ETF (UUP) is trading $25.66, down $0.03 or -0.12%.

In economic news, consumer spending bounced back sharply in January as rising inflation and a post-holiday surge kept cash registers ringing, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. Retail sales for the month rose 3.8%, much better than the 2.1% Dow Jones estimate.

The minutes from the Fed’s January meeting will be released later today at 19:00 GMT. Traders are expecting a hawkish tone with long-standing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise rates starting in March.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 97.440 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 95.145 will change the main trend to down.

The minor range is 95.145 to 96.430. The index is currently trading on the strong side of its pivot at 95.790, making it support. This level stopped the selling earlier today.

The short-term range is 97.440 to 95.145. Its retracement zone at 96.295 to 96.565 is resistance. It stopped the buying at 96.43 on Monday.

The main support zone is 95.320 – 94.820. It stopped the selling at 95.145 on February 4.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the March U.S. Dollar Index into the close on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 95.790.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 95.790 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for a surge into 96.295. Sellers could come in on the first test of this area, but look for an acceleration to the upside if buyers can take out 96.565.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 95.785 will be a sign of weakness. This could trigger a sharp break into 95.320 to 94.820. This area has to hold or the dollar could collapse.