E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Trade Thru 30638 Changes Trend to Down

March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading nearly flat shortly before the cash market close in a narrowly traded session.

Helping to keep prices in check is the anticipation of President-elect Joe Biden’s speech on Thursday night, where he is widely expected to announce his stimulus plan that could exceed $1.5 trillion, a weakening jobs market and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s reassurance that an interest rate cut would not be coming anytime soon.

At 20:39 GMT, March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are at 30971, up 12 or +0.04%.

After Biden’s speech, the focus will shift to earnings season, which is expected to kick into full swing with results from JPMorgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo slated for Friday.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 31148 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through 30638.

The minor range is 31148 to 30638. Its 50% level or pivot at 30893 is acting like support.

The second minor range is 29760 to 31148. If the main trend changes to down then its 50% level at 30454 will become the first downside target, followed by another 50% level at 30233. The selling could start to open up to the downside if 30233 fails as support.

Short-Term Outlook

The direction of the March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average into the close will be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at 30893.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 30893 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could lead to a test of 31148 and a potential acceleration to the upside through this level.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 30893 will signal the presence of sellers. Taking out 30638 will change the main trend to down, but this could lead to a labored break with potential support levels at 30454 and 30233.

Side Notes

We’re expecting an initial volatile reaction to Biden’s pledge for more stimulus, but after that, prices are likely to remain rangebound until the earnings reports are released shortly before the cash market opening.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.