E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – 12698.00 – 13082.50 Controlling Near-Term Direction

September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures closed higher on Thursday, helped by another drop in U.S. Treasury yields as investors poured over data showing a slowing U.S. economy for a second straight quarter, a day after the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell suggested the pace of rate hikes might slow down.

On Thursday, September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures settled at 12737.50, up 118.50 or +0.03%. The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) finished at $309.81, up $2.00 or +0.65%.

In economic news, U.S. second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) fell at a 0.9% annualized rate, according to the Commerce Department’s advance estimate. This compares with economist expectations for 0.5% growth and came after a first-quarter contraction of 1.6%.

On Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments prompted bets that rate hikes would begin to slow and lead to rate cuts in 2023.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed on Thursday when buyers took out the main top at 12698.50. A trade through 12072 will change the main trend to down.

The short-term range is 14327.50 to 11068.50. The index is currently testing its retracement zone at 12698.00 to 13082.50.

The nearest minor support is a pivot at 12088.75. The major support is a 50% level at 11671.25.

Short-Term Outlook

Trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at 12698.00 is likely to determine the direction of the September E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index early Friday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 12698.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first upside target is the main top at 12973.75, followed by the short-term Fibonacci level at 13082.50. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the May 4 main top at 13582.75 the next target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 12698.00 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is a pivot at 12510.00. Buyers could come in on the first test of this level, but if it fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into the nearest support cluster at 12088.75 to 12072.00.