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James Hyerczyk
E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading mixed Monday, shortly before the cash market opening. Traders are showing little response to Friday’s blowout jobs report and upbeat factory activity data, which could mean they are worried about a potential rate hike by the Fed later in the year. More likely, however, is the lack of commitment ahead today’s earnings report from Alphabet after the bell. Trading volume is also down on Monday, due to the start of the Lunar New Year.

At 10:35 GMT, March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 6883.25, up 5.50 or +0.08%.

Daily March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 6943.00 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A trade through 6592.25 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is also up. A move through 6616.75 will change the minor trend to down. This will shift momentum to the downside.

The market is currently trading inside a major retracement zone at 6792.75 to 7022.25. Trader reaction to this zone will determine the longer-term direction of the index.

The intermediate retracement zone at 6653.75 to 6494.75 is support.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on Friday’s price action and today’s early movement, the direction of the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 6943.00 to 6839.25.

Bullish Scenario

Taking out and sustaining a rally over 6943.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first target is the major Fibonacci level at 7022.25. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the next major target the main top at 7169.00.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 6839.25 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a further break into the major 50% level at 6792.75. This is another trigger point for an acceleration into the intermediate Fib level at 6653.75.

Holding inside Thursday range at 6943.00 to 6839.25 for a second day will indicate investor indecision and impending volatility.

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