James Hyerczyk
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E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading higher after hitting a record high shortly before the opening on Tuesday. Despite weakness in the S&P 500 and Dow due to the possible impact of a halt to the rollout of Johnson & Johnson vaccines, the technology-based NASDAQ rose as trader bought several so-called “stay at home” stocks.

At 13:23 GMT, June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are at 13879.50, up 70.75 or +0.51%.

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In other news, traders showed a muted reaction to the news that the consumer price index, one of Wall Street’s most-popular inflation gauges, rose 0.6% in March and increased 2.6% from the same period a year ago. Economists polled by Dow Jones were projecting the headline index to rise by 0.5% month over month and 2.5% year over year.

The early price action indicates investors may have priced in the CPI data, but the J&J news came as a total surprise.

Daily June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed when buyers took out the February 26 main top at 13888.00.

A trade through 12609.75 will change the main trend to down. This is highly unlikely, but due to the prolonged move up in terms of price and time, today’s session begins with the index inside the window of time for a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

A closing price reversal top won’t change the trend to down, but it indicates the selling is greater than the buying at current price levels.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 13512.50 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures contract on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 13808.75.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 13808.75 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out the intraday high at 13896.00 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 13808.75 will signal the presence of sellers. The first potential downside target is a minor pivot at 13704.25. This level will continue to move up as the market moves higher. If it fails as support then look for the selling to possibly extend into the minor bottom at 13512.50.

Side Notes

A close under 13808.75 will form a closing price reversal top on the daily chart. If confirmed on Wednesday, this could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
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