The direction of the December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 11955.75 and 11675.50.
December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading lower early Thursday after posting a small gain the previous session following two days of strong selling pressure. Despite yesterday’s rebound, the technology-based index could be in for more selling as traders exit high-flying technology stocks for companies that could benefit from a reopening of the economy.
The selling this week has been fueled by an announcement from Pfizer and BioNTech that the companies’ COVID-19 vaccine candidate appeared to be more than 90% effective in its phase three trial.
Prices could continue to fall hard as more positive news on the vaccine front could come soon, as Moderna announced on Wednesday evening that its phase-three trial had accrued enough cases of the coronavirus to submit the preliminary results to an independent safety monitoring board.
Daily December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index
Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has been trending lower since Monday’s closing price reversal top.
A trade through 12408.75 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend changes to down on a move through 10942.25.
The minor trend is also up. A trade through 11503.25 will change the minor trend to down. This will shift momentum to the downside.
The minor range is 12408.75 to 11503.75. Its 50% level at 11955.75 is potential resistance. It’s also a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.
The short-term range is 10942.25 to 12408.75. Its retracement zone at 11675.50 to 11502.50 is support. This zone stopped the selling at 11503.25 on Tuesday. Taking out 11502.50 could trigger an acceleration to the downside.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast
The direction of the December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 11955.75 and the 50% level at 11675.50. Holding between this levels will signal investor indecision and impending volatility.
A sustained move under 11675.50 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into 11502.50. If this level fails then look for an acceleration to the downside with 10942.25 – 10917.50 the next likely target.
A sustained move over 11955.75 will signal the presence of buyers. This could trigger an acceleration to the upside with 12408.75 – 12444.75 the next likely target zone.
Buyers are trying to form a secondary higher bottom at 11675.50 to 11502.50. Aggressive counter-trend sellers are trying to form a secondary lower top at 11955.75.
James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.