E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Trader Reaction to 6358.75 Should Determine Direction into Close

Based on the current price action, the direction of the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index into the close is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at 6358.75.
James Hyerczyk
E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading higher shortly before the cash market and futures close. This puts the index in a position to close the week higher while posting a potentially bullish weekly closing price reversal bottom.

At 1951 GMT, the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index is trading 6375.50, up 50.00 or +0.80%.

Daily March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is trending higher due to Wednesday’s closing price reversal bottom and subsequent confirmation on Thursday. A trade through 6897.00 will change the main trend to up. The downtrend will resume if 5820.50 is taken out.

On the downside, the support is a long-term 50% level at 5866.50.

The short-term range is 6897.00 to 5820.50. The market is currently testing its retracement zone at 6358.75 to 6485.75. This zone is very important to the short-term structure of the market.

Since the main trend is down, sellers are likely to come in on a test of 6358.75 to 6485.75. If successful, a new secondary lower top will form. Aggressive counter-trend buyers are going to try to drive the market through this zone.

The main range is 7169.00 to 5820.50. Its retracement zone is another potential target at 6494.75 to 6654.00. Once again, sellers are likely to show up on a test of this zone.

The combination of these two retracement zones creates a potential resistance cluster at 6485.75 to 6494.75. This is the best upside target today. Watch for sellers on a test of this area.

Forecast

Based on the current price action, the direction of the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index into the close is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at 6358.75.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 6358.75 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move generates enough upside momentum then look for a rally into the close with the potential target the resistance cluster at 6485.75 to 6494.75.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 6358.75 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move generates enough downside momentum then we could see a drive into yesterday’s close at 6323.50. If aggressive counter-trend buyers fail to show up on a test of this level then the index will close lower for the session.

The index will need to close over 6323.50 in order to form a weekly closing price reversal bottom.

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