E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – December 24, 2018 Forecast

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading lower shortly after the cash market opening. If there’s any trading to be done today, it’s likely to take place early in the session since the NYSE is scheduled to close early at 1800 GMT. The exchange will be closed on Tuesday for Christmas, but normal trading will resume on Wednesday. Clearly, investors are still be rattled by last week’s Federal Reserve rate hike, the lingering trade dispute between the U.S. and China and the current government shutdown.

At 1431 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 2407.50, down 6.00 or -0.24%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The index is in no position to change the main trend to up, but it is inside the window of time for a closing price reversal bottom.

The major downside target is the long-term 50% to 61.8% retracement zone at 2368.50 to 2231.00.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to Friday’s close at 2413.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 2413.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger an intraday short-covering rally. A close over this level will form a closing price reversal bottom. If confirmed on Wednesday, this could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day counter-trend rally.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 2413.50 will signal the presence of sellers. If this generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to extend into the major 50% level at 2368.50. We could see a technical bounce on the first test of this level, but if it fails then look for a potential acceleration to the downside with the next major target the Fibonacci level at 2231.00.

The retracement zone at 2368.50 to 2231.00 represents a 50% to 61.8% retracement of the 2016 to 2018 rally.