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James Hyerczyk
E-mini S&P 500 Index

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading slightly lower shortly before the cash market opening. Volume is below average for this time of day and the market is trading inside yesterday’s range which suggest investor indecision and impending volatility.

Traders are waiting for the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report at 13:30 GMT. The report is expected to show the U.S. economy added 165K jobs in January. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.9% and average hourly earnings are expected to show a rise of 0.3%. Some are suggesting the data may have been distorted by the 35 day partial government shutdown.

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At 13:11 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 2697.75, down 6.75 or -0.25%.

Stocks could actually rally if the numbers are weak since this would confirm the dovish message from the Fed presented earlier this week.

Daily March E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 2713.00 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 2612.50 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is also up. A move through 2622.25 will change the minor trend to down. This will shift momentum to the downside.

The major retracement zone is 2636.00 to 2711.50. This zone is controlling the longer-term direction of the index.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and yesterday’s high, the direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 2713.00 to 2711.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 2713.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could be the trigger point for an acceleration to the upside since the daily chart indicates there is plenty of room to the upside with 2819.00 the next major target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 2711.50 will signal the presence of sellers. If this create enough downside momentum then look for a possible spike into the main 50% level at 2636.00.

Taking out 2736.00 will indicate the selling is getting stronger with the next targets the minor bottom at 2622.25 and the main bottom at 2612.50.

Basically, strengthens over 2713.00, weakens under 2711.50.

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