E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Grinding Higher into Close on Lackluster Volume

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading higher late in the session on Thursday after weekly unemployment claims data suggested the U.S. labor market was charging ahead even as new COVID-19 infections surge, while the risk of a sub-par U.S. payrolls report kept the dollar on the defensive.

At 19:43 GMT, September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are at 4529.25, up 8.00 or +0.18%.

The Labor Department report showed the number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits fell the week-ending August 27 to a pandemic-era low. The decline in layoffs to their lowest in more than 24 years helped ease concerns about the state of the U.S. economy even if the closely watched employment report for August on Friday shows a slowdown in Non-Farm Payrolls growth.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the intraday high at 4544.00 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 4462.25 will change the main trend to down.

The index is up 10 sessions from its last major bottom on August 19. This puts it inside the window of time for a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. The chart pattern won’t change the main trend to down, but if confirmed, it could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.

The minor range is 4462.25 to 4544.00. Its retracement zone at 4503.00 to 4493.50 is the first downside target area.

The short-term range is 4347.75 to 4544.00. If the main trend changes to down then look for the selling to possibly extend into its retracement zone at 4445.75 to 4422.75.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index into the close on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 4521.25.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4521.25 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move generates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly lead to a retest of the intraday high at 4544.00. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4521.25 will signal the presence of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the minor retracement zone at 4503.25 to 4493.50.