E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – June 13, 2018 Forecast
September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are inching higher shortly before the cash market opening. This suggests increased demand for higher risk assets. The direction of the index the rest of the day could be determined by how aggressive the Fed will be with interest rates the rest of the year.
At 1249 GMT, September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 2788.75, up 4.75 or +0.17%.
The current piece action indicates that investors have priced in the widely expected June rate hike. Investors could be receptive to just one more rate hike later this year, but we could see a negative reaction if the Fed hints at two more rate hikes.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. Today’s higher-high reaffirmed the uptrend. The index is up eleven days from the last swing bottom. This means that investors should watch for a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.
The minor trend is also up. A trade through 2755.75 will change the minor trend to down.
The market is currently trading on the strong side of a major retracement zone at 2755.25 to 2713.75 and a minor retracement zone at 2737.50 to 2723.75. Holding these levels will help maintain the strong upside bias.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast
Based on the early price action, the direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index is likely to be determined by trader reaction to yesterday’s close at 2788.25.
A sustained move over 2788.25 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this generates enough upside momentum then look for a possible test of the March 13 top at 2814.00. Although we could see a technical bounce on the first test of this level, this price is also a trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.
A sustained move under 2788.25.00 will signal the presence of sellers. This will put the market in a position to form a closing price reversal top while shifting momentum to the downside.
If enough momentum is generated by this move then we could see a break into the support cluster at 2755.75 to 2755.25.