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E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Next Downside Target 3350.50 to 3339.50

James Hyerczyk

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are drifting lower in a lackluster trade shortly after the cash market opening on Thursday. Aggressive buyers chased the market higher early in the session in reaction to strength in Asia and Europe, but prices retreated soon after.

The catalysts underpinning the market are a rate cut from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and signs of a slowdown in the outbreak of the deadly coronavirus. Helping to put a lid on the rally were comments from a high-ranking Federal Reserve who poured cold water on market expectations for easier monetary policy from the U.S. central bank.

At 16:16 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 3372.25, down 15.00 or -0.44%.

Daily March E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, the price action suggests the index may be forming a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

A trade through 3397.50 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a trade through 3303.50.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 3355.25 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The short-term range is 3303.50 to 3397.50. Its retracement zone at 3350.50 to 3339.50 is the primary downside target.

The main range is 3212.75 to 3397.50. Its retracement zone is the major downside target and value zone.


Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 3372.25, the direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 3387.25.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 3387.25 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first downside target is an uptrending Gann angle at 3359.50. Look for buyers on the first test of this angle.

If 3359.50 fails as support then look for the selling to extend into a minor bottom at 3355.25, followed by a short-term 50% level at 3350.50 and another minor bottom at 3348.50. If 3348.50 fails as support then look for the selling to extend into the Fibonacci level at 3339.50.

The Fibonacci level at 3339.50 is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into a major uptrending Gann angle at 3316.75.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 3387.25 will signal the presence of buyers. This could trigger a retest of 3397.50. Taking out this intraday high will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

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