E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Testing Record High Ahead of Friday’s NFP Report

December S&P 500 Index futures hit a record high on Thursday on stellar earnings reports, with investors looking past the Federal Reserve’s asset tapering plan as borrowing costs remain low. Gains were likely limited by unexpected weakness in the banking sector, which slipped despite a steepening of the yield curve.

At 19:01 GMT, December S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4661.50, up 9.25 or +0.20%.

Three of the 11 major S&P sectors advanced. Financials and healthcare declined more than 1%. The S&P 500 banks sub-index fell 2.2% with JPMorgan Chase & Co slipping 1.7% and Goldman Sachs Group falling by 2.6%.

In economic news, data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell to a fresh 19-month low last week. It will be followed by a more comprehensive nonfarm payrolls report on Friday.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the intraday high at 4674.75 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 4260.00 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 4543.75 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The minor range is 4543.75 to 4674.75. Its 50% level or pivot at 4609.25 is the nearest support. The second minor range is 4317.25 to 4674.75. Its pivot at 4496.00 is additional support.

The main trend is 4260.00 to 4674.75. If the minor trend changes to down then its retracement zone at 4467.25 to 4418.50 will become the primary downside target area.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the December E-mini S&P 500 Index into the close is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 4652.25.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4652.25 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move generates enough upside momentum late in the session then look for a surge into 4674.75, which is a trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4652.25 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for a break into the first pivot at 4609.25.

Since the main trend is up, buyers could come in on the first test of this level. If it fails then look for the weakness to continue on Friday with 4543.75 the next potential target.