E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Trade Through 3982.25 Shifts Momentum to Upside

June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading higher shortly after the cash market opening as investors prepare for the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s May meeting, which will likely offer clues on the path of future rate hikes amid worries about slowing economic growth.

At 14:14 GMT, the June E-mini S&P 500 Index is trading 3948.50, up 8.00 or +0.20%. The S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) is at $394.78, up $0.89 or +0.23%.

Investors are awaiting the latest meeting minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee, which are scheduled to be released at 18:00 GMT. At the May 4 meeting, the Fed hiked rates by half a percentage point, with Chair Jerome Powell saying that inflation is “much too high and we understand the hardship it is causing. We’re moving expeditiously to bring it back down.”

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 4095.00 will change the main trend to up. A move through 3807.50 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 3982.25 will change the main trend to up. This will shift the momentum. A move through 3872.00 will be a sign of weakness.

The market is currently straddling a minor pivot at 3951.25. Additional support is another minor pivot at 3894.75.

The short-term range is 4303.00 to 3807.50. If the minor trend changes to up then its retracement zone at 4055.25 – 4113.75 will become the primary upside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Trader reaction to 3951.25 will likely determine the direction of the June E-mini S&P 500 Index on Wednesday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 3951.25 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out the minor top at 3982.25 will shift momentum to the upside, which could trigger an acceleration into the short-term 50% level at 4055.25. This is the last potential resistance before the 4095.00 main top.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 3951.25 will signal the presence of sellers. The first target is the pivot at 3895.75. This is followed by the minor bottom at 3872.00.

Taking out 3872.00 could trigger an acceleration into the main bottom at 3807.50. If this level fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into the March 8, 2021 main bottom at 3759.50.