ETH Bears Eye a Return to Sub-$1,750 as Staking APR Slides

Bob Mason
Published: Jun 8, 2023, 02:42 GMT+00:00

ETH found early support this morning. However, staking statistics and the withdrawal profile are bearish, which could test buyer appetite.

ETH Tech Analysis - FX Empire

In this article:

Key Insights:

  • On Wednesday, ETH returned to the red, falling 2.76% to end the day at $1,833.
  • Binance news and staking statistics left ETH in negative territory.
  • The technical indicators turned bearish, signaling a return to sub-$1,750.

Ethereum (ETH) fell by 2.76% on Wednesday. Partially reversing a 4.09% gain from Tuesday, ETH ended the day at $1,833. The bearish session left ETH short of the $1,900 handle for the third consecutive session.

Tracking the broader market, ETH rose to a first-hour high of $1,898 before hitting reverse. Falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,923, ETH fell to a late-session low of $1,820. However, finding support at the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,822, ETH ended the day at $1,833.

SEC-Binance News and Staking Statistics Left ETH on the Defensive

Following the SEC’s filings against Binance and Coinbase (COIN), the Binance US response weighed on investor sentiment.

On Wednesday, Binance US announced the delisting of trading pairs and paused OTC trading.

In contrast, Coinbase is ready to head to Court and defend itself and the crypto market. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong responded to the SEC filing, saying,

“Regarding the SEC complaint against us today we’re proud to represent the industry in court to finally get some clarity around crypto rules.”

Armstrong added,

“Remember: 1) The SEC reviewed our business and allowed us to become a public company in 2021. 2) There is no path to ‘come in and register’ – we tried, repeatedly – so we don’t list securities. We reject the vast majority of assets we review. 3) The SEC and CFTC have made conflicting statements, and don’t even agree on what is a security and what is a commodity.”

In a lengthy tweet, the Coinbase CEO concluded,

“We’ll get the job done. In the meantime, let’s all keep moving forward and building as an industry. America will get this right in the end.”

Staking Statistics Turn Bearish After Binance US Response to the SEC

According to CryptoQuant, staking inflows fell from 91,392 ETH on Tuesday to 79,136 on Wednesday. The mid-week pullback left staking inflows at sub-100,000 for the fifth consecutive session.

Staking inflow drop.
ETH Staking Inflows 080623

The total value staked climbed higher but at a slower pace, with the net staking balance and bearish ETH session a drag.

total value staked up at a slower pace.
Total Value Staked 080623

The overnight withdrawal profile was bearish, with principal withdrawals rising above normal levels. However, withdrawal projections for the morning session were also bearish, with principal ETH withdrawals projected to remain higher.

On Wednesday, the net ETH staking balance fell by 4.42% to a surplus of 70,370 ETH, equivalent to $129.17 million. Deposits totaled 102,610 ETH versus withdrawals of 32,240 ETH.

According to TokenUnlocks, total pending withdrawals stood at 89,460 ETH, equivalent to approximately $164.53 million. Notably, the staking APR stood at 7.09%, down 3.39% over 24 hours.

Withdrawal profile is bearish.
ETH Withdrawal Profile – 080623

The Day Ahead

It is a quiet Thursday for ETH, with US initial jobless claims in focus. However, the numbers would need to spike to move the dial. With the economic calendar on the light side, investors should monitor the crypto news wires for SEC and US lawmaker chatter.

SEC v Ripple, SEC v Binance, and SEC v Coinbase updates and related news would move the dial.

However, staking statistics will continue to influence. Another fall in staking APR and a bearish session could push withdrawals higher and create a net staking deficit for the session.

Ethereum Price Action

This morning, ETH was up 0.34% to $1,839. A bullish start to the day saw ETH rise from an early low of $1,831 to a high of $1,841.

ETH finds early support.
ETHUSD 080623 Daily Chart

ETH Technical Indicators

Resistance & Support Levels

R1 – $ 1,881 S1 – $ 1,803
R2 – $ 1,928 S2 – $ 1,772
R3 – $ 2,006 S3 – $ 1,694

ETH needs to move through the $1,850 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,881 and the Wednesday high of $1,898. A return to $1,850 would signal a breakout session. However, ETH staking statistics and the crypto news wires must support a bullish session.

In the event of an extended rally, the bulls would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,928 and resistance at $1,950. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $2,006.

Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,803 in play. However, barring another risk-off-fueled sell-off, ETH should avoid sub-$1,750. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,772 should limit the downside.

The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1,694.

ETH support levels in play below the pivot.
ETHUSD 080623 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. Ethereum sat below the 200-day EMA, currently at $1,855. The 50-day EMA closed in on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA converging on the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A move through the EMAs would support a breakout from R1 ($1,881) to target R2 ($1,928) and $1,950. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($1,863) would leave S1 ($1,803) in view.

A move through the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal.

EMAs are bearish.
ETHUSD 080623 Hourly Chart

About the Author

Bob Masonauthor

With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.

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