EUR/USD Daily Forecast – Euro Declines Ahead Of ECB Interest Rate Decision

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Updated: Jun 10, 2021, 07:46 UTC

EUR/USD managed to get below the 20 EMA and is moving towards the support at 1.2155.

Euro Is Losing Ground Against U.S. Dollar

EUR/USD managed to get below the 20 EMA at 1.2175 and is slowly moving towards the support at 1.2155 while the U.S. dollar is gaining some ground against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index is currently trying to settle above the resistance at the 20 EMA at 90.20. A move above this level will push the U.S. Dollar Index towards the resistance at 90.50 which will be bearish for EUR/USD.

Today, foreign exchange market traders will focus on two key events. The U.S. will release inflation data for May while the European Central Bank will announce its Interest Rate Decision.

ECB is expected to leave the interest rate unchanged, so traders will focus on the Bank’s commentary which may have a material impact on currency dynamics.

In the U.S., the key question is whether Inflation Rate moved above the 5% level in May (the current analyst consensus is 4.7%).

Traders will also have a chance to take a look at the latest job market data from the U.S. Initial Jobless Claims are expected to decline from 385,000 to 370,000 while Continuing Jobless Claims are projected to decrease from 3.77 million to 3.6 million.

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD is currently trying to get to the test of the support level at 1.2155. RSI is in the moderate territory, and there is plenty of room to gain downside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

If EUR/USD manages to settle below 1.2155, it will head towards the next support level at 1.2130. The 50 EMA is located in the nearby so EUR/USD may get strong support near 1.2130. A move below the 50 EMA will lead to the test of the support at 1.2115.

On the upside, a move above the 20 EMA at 1.2175 will open the way to the test of the resistance at 1.2200. If EUR/USD gets above this level, it will head towards the next resistance at 1.2220. In case EUR/USD manages to settle above the resistance at 1.2220, it will head towards the resistance at 1.2250.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Vladimir Zernovauthor

Vladimir is an independent trader and analyst with over 10 years of experience in the financial markets. He is a specialist in stocks, futures, Forex, indices, and commodities areas using long-term positional trading and swing trading.