EUR/USD Gains Ground Despite Rising Treasury Yields

Key Insights

• Treasury yields keep moving higher, but euro rebounds against U.S. dollar. 
• Russia – Ukraine negotiations in Turkey may have a material impact on currency dynamics. 
• A successful test of the resistance at 1.1000 will push EUR/USD towards the 20 EMA at 1.1025.

Euro Moves Higher Against U.S. Dollar

EUR/USD is currently trying to settle back above the 1.1000 level, while the U.S. dollar is losing ground against a broad basket of currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index has recently managed to get below the 99 level and is trying to develop additional downside momentum. In case the U.S. Dollar Index settles below this level, it will move towards the next support at 98.70, which will be bearish for EUR/USD.

Today, foreign exchange market traders will focus on the Case-Shiller Home Price Index report from the U.S., which is expected to show that home prices increased by 1% month-over-month in January.

Traders will also keep an eye on geopolitical news as another round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine begins in Turkey. Any positive news  will likely provide additional support to riskier assets, which will be bullish for the euro. At the same time, traders should also focus on Treasury yields as they keep moving higher and may provide more support to the American currency.

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD is testing the resistance level at 1.1000. In case this test is successful, EUR/USD will move towards the next resistance level, which is located at the 20 EMA at 1.1025.

A move above the 20 EMA will open the way to the test of the resistance at 1.1050. If EUR/USD climbs above this level, it will head towards the next resistance at 1.1070.

On the support side, EUR/USD needs to settle back below 1.1000 to have a chance to develop downside momentum in the near term. The next support level for EUR/USD is located at 1.0960.

If EUR/USD declines below the support at 1.0960, it will move towards the next support level at 1.0930. A move below this level will push EUR/USD towards the support at 1.0900.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.