EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Forecast: DXY Stalls at 105.40 – Euro, Pound Eye Data

Arslan Ali
Published: Jun 14, 2024, 08:11 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • US PPI data unexpectedly declined, while jobless claims fell, creating mixed signals for the US dollar.
  • Focus shifts to European data releases today, including French CPI, Italian trade balance, and Eurozone trade balance.
  • Central bank speeches by ECB President Lagarde and FOMC Member Cook may spark market volatility and influence currency movements.
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Forecast: DXY Stalls at 105.40 – Euro, Pound Eye Data

In this article:

Market Overview

The US dollar experienced mixed signals yesterday. The PPI figures were softer than expected, declining 0.2% month-over-month compared to the forecasted 0.1% increase. Jobless claims, however, came in lower than predicted at 242K, against expectations of 255K.

These conflicting signals caused uncertainty surrounding the dollar’s direction. Treasury Secretary Yellen’s speech offered no clear market guidance, and the results of the 30-year bond auction (4.40%) were within the expected range.

Events Ahead

Today, focus shifts to European economic data. French final CPI figures and Italy’s trade balance data will provide insight into the Eurozone’s economic condition.

In the UK, consumer inflation expectations, currently at 3.0%, will be closely monitored as they can significantly sway the Bank of England’s policy decisions. Meanwhile, the eurozone’s overall trade balance of 17.0B will provide a broader perspective on the region’s economic activity.

In the US, import prices and preliminary consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan will be key data points. These figures often trigger market reactions.

Lastly, speeches from ECB President Lagarde and FOMC Member Cook will be scrutinized for any hints about future monetary policy decisions.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Dollar Index
Dollar Index

The Dollar Index saw a slight uptick to 105.418. However, it displays a bearish pattern below the double top at 105.466. A decisive move above this level could invalidate the bearish outlook and signal the potential for further gains, with the next resistance levels at 105.655 and 105.907.

Conversely, a sustained move below 105.466 could confirm the bearish bias, with immediate support at 105.184 and subsequent support levels at 104.890 and 104.616. The 50-day EMA is currently at 105.001, while the 200-day EMA sits at 104.810.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

About the Author

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.

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