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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: DXY Nears $106; Eyes on US Retail Sales

By:
Arslan Ali
Published: Apr 15, 2024, 08:19 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • French Final CPI remains stable at 0.2%, hinting at a steady inflation landscape in Eurozone.
  • UK's GDP growth decelerates to 0.1%, indicating slower economic activity in March.
  • Eurozone set to release Industrial Production data; anticipated increase may boost EUR.
Dollar Index

In this article:

Market Overview

Last Friday, key economic indicators were released that have implications for both the Euro and British Pound. In the Eurozone, the French Final CPI maintained a steady pace at 0.2% month-over-month, aligning with expectations and previous readings, indicating a stable inflation landscape within France.

Across the channel, the UK reported a GDP growth rate of 0.1% month-over-month for March, underperforming expectations and the previous figure of 0.3%, signaling a slight deceleration in economic activity.

Events Ahead

The Eurozone is set to publish its Industrial Production figures, with forecasts pointing to a recovery of 0.8% month-over-month, a potential sign of resilience in the manufacturing sector after a previous decline of 3.2%. This data could provide a bullish signal for the Euro if results meet or exceed expectations.

For the GBP/USD, attention turns to the Bank of England as MPC Member Breeden is scheduled to speak. His insights into future monetary policy and economic conditions in the UK will be crucial for forex traders.

Additionally, several U.S. economic reports will be in focus, including Core Retail Sales expected to show a rise of 0.5%, and the Empire State Manufacturing Index, which is anticipated to improve significantly to -5.2 from -20.9.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Dollar Index
Dollar Index

The Dollar Index today holds relatively steady at 105.966, down a marginal 0.04%. The currency benchmark appears to consolidate just above its pivot point at 105.525, suggesting a hesitant market sentiment. Should the index sustain above this level, it could encounter resistance at 106.654, with further barriers at 107.365 and 108.087.

Conversely, a dip below the pivot could see the index testing lower supports at 104.064, followed by 102.984 and 102.070, potentially indicating a bearish shift. The 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages, at 104.128 and 103.876 respectively, provide additional technical grounding, reinforcing a bullish outlook unless the pivot is breached.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

About the Author

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.

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