EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: DXY Nears $106; Eyes on US Retail Sales

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Published: Apr 15, 2024, 08:19 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

French Final CPI remains stable at 0.2%, hinting at a steady inflation landscape in Eurozone.
UK's GDP growth decelerates to 0.1%, indicating slower economic activity in March.
Eurozone set to release Industrial Production data; anticipated increase may boost EUR.

Market Overview

Last Friday, key economic indicators were released that have implications for both the Euro and British Pound. In the Eurozone, the French Final CPI maintained a steady pace at 0.2% month-over-month, aligning with expectations and previous readings, indicating a stable inflation landscape within France.

Across the channel, the UK reported a GDP growth rate of 0.1% month-over-month for March, underperforming expectations and the previous figure of 0.3%, signaling a slight deceleration in economic activity.

Events Ahead

The Eurozone is set to publish its Industrial Production figures, with forecasts pointing to a recovery of 0.8% month-over-month, a potential sign of resilience in the manufacturing sector after a previous decline of 3.2%. This data could provide a bullish signal for the Euro if results meet or exceed expectations.

For the GBP/USD, attention turns to the Bank of England as MPC Member Breeden is scheduled to speak. His insights into future monetary policy and economic conditions in the UK will be crucial for forex traders.

Additionally, several U.S. economic reports will be in focus, including Core Retail Sales expected to show a rise of 0.5%, and the Empire State Manufacturing Index, which is anticipated to improve significantly to -5.2 from -20.9.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index today holds relatively steady at 105.966, down a marginal 0.04%. The currency benchmark appears to consolidate just above its pivot point at 105.525, suggesting a hesitant market sentiment. Should the index sustain above this level, it could encounter resistance at 106.654, with further barriers at 107.365 and 108.087.

Conversely, a dip below the pivot could see the index testing lower supports at 104.064, followed by 102.984 and 102.070, potentially indicating a bearish shift. The 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages, at 104.128 and 103.876 respectively, provide additional technical grounding, reinforcing a bullish outlook unless the pivot is breached.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The EUR/USD pair ticks upward today, registering a modest gain of 0.15% to trade at 1.06539. The pair is currently testing a critical juncture near its pivot point at 1.06609. A successful breach of this level could open the door to resistance levels at 1.07302, 1.07946, and 1.08919, indicating potential upward momentum.

However, should the currency pair fall below the pivot, it faces immediate support at 1.05538, with further cushions at 1.04616 and 1.03695 which could halt any declines. The 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages, hovering at 1.08208 and 1.08140 respectively, suggest underlying bearish pressures, as the pair trades well below these indicators.

GBP/USD Technical Forecast

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The GBP/USD pair edged up by 0.14% today, standing at 1.24632. It is currently navigating below a pivotal mark at 1.25208, which serves as a threshold for determining its near-term trajectory. If it breaches this pivot point, the pair may encounter resistance at 1.26795, followed by 1.27828 and 1.28964, potentially signaling an uptrend.

Conversely, should it fail to surpass this critical level, support might be found at 1.23731, with additional fallbacks at 1.23060 and 1.21924 to catch any downward moves. Both the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages, positioned at 1.26381 and 1.25657 respectively, underscore the currency pair’s current bearish bias beneath the pivot point. A decisive move above 1.25208 could pivot to a bullish outlook.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

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