EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: DXY to Continue Uptrend Amid Fed Moves

Arslan Ali
Updated: Apr 3, 2024, 08:10 UTC

Key Points:

  • USD's resilience is shown by the slight decline in JOLTS Job Openings and rise in Factory Orders.
  • European economic health in focus, with varying data on government budget, unemployment, and manufacturing.
  • Fed speeches and U.S. employment data to shape market trends, with the EUR/USD and GBP/USD near pivotal points.
US Dollar Index and FOMC

In this article:

Market Overview

The USD’s strength continues to be a focal point, with JOLTS Job Openings marginally decreasing from 8.76M to 8.75M, while Factory Orders m/m saw an uptick to 1.4%, hinting at underlying economic resilience.

Events Ahead

In Europe, attention turns to inflation and labor market figures, with the French Government Budget Balance widening to -44.0B and Italian Unemployment ticking down to 7.5%. These statistics suggest fiscal strains and modest labor market improvement, respectively. For the UK, a slight uptick in the Final Manufacturing PMI to 50.3 and increased Mortgage Approvals to 60K indicate some economic momentum, despite challenges.

Looking forward, the market is poised for pivotal data releases, including the U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change expected at 148K and ISM Services PMI projected at 52.8, alongside Fed officials’ speeches that could sway market sentiment. In Europe, the focus will be on CPI and unemployment rates, with the Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y at 3.0% for the Eurozone.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Dollar Index
Dollar Index

The Dollar Index slightly decreased by 0.01%, landing at 104.82. It hovers around a pivot point of $104.71, with immediate resistance spotted at $105.09, escalating to $105.60. Support levels start at $104.48, descending to $104.01.

The 50-day EMA at $104.44 and the 200-day EMA at $103.92 both suggest a stabilizing trend.

The overall sentiment for the Dollar Index remains bullish above $104.71, but a drop below this threshold could trigger a sharp selling trend, indicating a delicate balance in market forces at play.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

About the Author

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.

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