EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: DXY to Continue Uptrend Amid Fed Moves

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Updated: Apr 3, 2024, 08:10 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

USD's resilience is shown by the slight decline in JOLTS Job Openings and rise in Factory Orders.
European economic health in focus, with varying data on government budget, unemployment, and manufacturing.
Fed speeches and U.S. employment data to shape market trends, with the EUR/USD and GBP/USD near pivotal points.

Market Overview

The USD’s strength continues to be a focal point, with JOLTS Job Openings marginally decreasing from 8.76M to 8.75M, while Factory Orders m/m saw an uptick to 1.4%, hinting at underlying economic resilience.

Events Ahead

In Europe, attention turns to inflation and labor market figures, with the French Government Budget Balance widening to -44.0B and Italian Unemployment ticking down to 7.5%. These statistics suggest fiscal strains and modest labor market improvement, respectively. For the UK, a slight uptick in the Final Manufacturing PMI to 50.3 and increased Mortgage Approvals to 60K indicate some economic momentum, despite challenges.

Looking forward, the market is poised for pivotal data releases, including the U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change expected at 148K and ISM Services PMI projected at 52.8, alongside Fed officials’ speeches that could sway market sentiment. In Europe, the focus will be on CPI and unemployment rates, with the Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y at 3.0% for the Eurozone.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index slightly decreased by 0.01%, landing at 104.82. It hovers around a pivot point of $104.71, with immediate resistance spotted at $105.09, escalating to $105.60. Support levels start at $104.48, descending to $104.01.

The 50-day EMA at $104.44 and the 200-day EMA at $103.92 both suggest a stabilizing trend.

The overall sentiment for the Dollar Index remains bullish above $104.71, but a drop below this threshold could trigger a sharp selling trend, indicating a delicate balance in market forces at play.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

On April 3, the EUR/USD pair experienced a modest increase, up 0.06%, trading at 1.07644. The currency trades around a pivot point of $1.07767, with potential resistance at $1.08201, escalating to $1.08901.

Conversely, support levels are identified at $1.07312, dropping to $1.06614. The 50-day and 200-day EMAs, at $1.07986 and $1.08378 respectively, suggest a near-term bearish trend, yet the pair remains delicately balanced.

A move above $1.07767 could shift momentum towards a bullish bias, whereas staying below this level may continue to pressure the EUR/USD downwards.

GBP/USD Technical Forecast

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The GBP/USD pair edged up by 0.01% on April 3, reaching 1.25685. Positioned slightly below its pivot point of $1.25836, the pair faces immediate resistance at $1.26401, with further barriers at $1.26917 and $1.27549.

Support is found at $1.25190, extending to $1.24514. The 50-day EMA stands at $1.26182 and the 200-day EMA at $1.26668, indicating a tilt towards a bearish trend below $1.25836.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

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