EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro Falls Into the Weekend

The Euro has fallen during the trading session on Friday, reaching down towards the 1.17 level again. If we can break down below the candlestick, then it is likely to go looking towards the 1.16 handle. Ultimately, if the market breaks down below there, then it may be able to fulfill the longer-term target that I have had of 1.15. We have rallied to test the previous uptrend line that was broken, and of course the measured move of the pattern that we had broken down from suggests that we could very well go to the 1.15 level. Given enough time, I do believe that we are looking at the possibility of this market reaching down to that level, but I do not necessarily expect it to happen overnight.

EUR/USD Video 05.10.20

At this point, I do not have any interest in buying the Euro, I see far too much in the way of noise above. Beyond that, I also worry about the European Union and the Brexit situation being too closely tied together. I do not have any interest in getting too cute with this trade, and I certainly would not get too big in any FX position right now. The risks of headline disruption are great, but at this point it certainly looks to me like we are struggling to find our footing, so therefore further downside is the most likely outcome. The US dollar has been oversold for a while, so at the very least this could be a return to some type of stability for the currency markets. Currency simply do not go straight up in the air forever, just like any other market.

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