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Christopher Lewis
EUR/USD weekly chart, October 21, 2019

The Euro has had a nice week, rallying towards the 1.1150 level. However, it is still very much in a downtrend and regardless of what it has done, it is still very much in a downtrend. Ultimately, this is a market that should be sold on signs of exhaustion, and a short could be had at the 1.12 level as it is an area where we’ve seen buyers and sellers react to this level, and of course the 50 week moving average is something that longer-term position traders pay attention to as well. You can see that it has acted as dynamic resistance for quite some time, so there’s no reason to think that it will change now.

EUR USD Forecast Video 21.10.19

All things being equal, I’m looking to fade this pair as the Euro has a significant amount of negativity attached to it, with the European Union heading into recession. Ultimately, the ECB is going to go into quantitative easing mode again, so that should continue to work against the common currency. However, if the weekly candle stick does close above the 50 EMA, that could be the sign of a significant trend change. Ultimately, this is still a negative scenario, and therefore selling should be rather more likely than buying but we have to watch for that significant break out to the upside as it would change everything for it not only longer-term traders, but perhaps the overall attitude of financial markets around the world.

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