Gold Price Forecast – Post Fed Selloff Tests $1490

The Fed cut interest rates 0.25% yesterday, and gold reacted immediately lower. Futures found support near $1490 and are bouncing ($1510 as I write). Our forecasting model calls for an Autumn low; we see two potential scenarios unfolding.
AG Thorson

Correction Scenario 1

Gold builds a base above $1490 and tests or marginally breaks the September $1566.20 high. Prices consolidate throughout much of October before finally collapsing below $1490 and into the next cycle low.

Correction Scenario 2

This scenario calls for a deeper correction and perhaps a backtest of the $1360 – $1380 breakout area. It requires a breakdown below $1490 in September. The initial decline would likely reach $1420 – $1440, followed by a consolidation and then a drop into a final low.

To favor one scenario over another, we need a $20.00 swing in either direction. Above $1530 supports the former – below $1490 establishes the latter.

Either outcome should lead to an attractive buying opportunity later this year. Our Gold Cycle Indicator (currently 285) should dip below 100 before prices reach a sustainable low.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle. For more information, please visit https://goldpredict.com/

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