Gold Price Forecast: Why Gold’s Recovery Suddenly Stalled

The Gold Cycle Indicator finished at 32; prices remain deeply oversold.

10-Year Yield

The yield on the 10-year Treasury reached a new high for 2026 and is now just 30 basis points away from testing the 2023 peak near 5.00%. If the Houthis shut down the Red Sea, crude oil prices could surge back above $100 per barrel, fueling inflation concerns and pushing Treasury yields even higher. A breakout above the 2023 yield highs could create a significant headwind for precious metals.

US Dollar

The U.S. dollar closed above its short-term trendline, signaling the potential for a move to fresh highs as Treasury yields continue to rise. A rally toward the 103–104 area remains a realistic possibility. I still expect the dollar to form a multi-year top within the next one to two months before entering a sharp decline that extends into late 2027.

WTIC

Crude oil is testing the downtrend line near $92.00. If the Houthis shut down the Red Sea, it could disrupt the flow of roughly 4 million barrels of oil per day. In the near term, the rally appears due for a pause or period of consolidation. However, if the threat to shipping becomes a reality, a continued surge above $100 per barrel is a distinct possibility.

Gold

Gold was in the process of forming a weekly bullish engulfing candle before Thursday’s sharp reversal. Unfortunately, if Middle East tensions continue to escalate and the U.S. dollar strengthens as Treasury yields rise, additional downside in precious metals becomes a real possibility. A move back below $4,000 would be a short-term bearish signal and could open the door to another leg lower.

Silver

Silver staged a solid rebound but failed to hold above the $60.00 level. Additional downside follow-through would be a short-term bearish signal and could open the door to further losses. However, a positive close on Friday would keep alive the possibility of a bottom at $54.74.

Platinum

 Platinum continues to trade sideways and needs a strong close above $1,700 to confirm that a bottom is in place. Conversely, a close below the short-term trendline (currently near $1,570) would be a bearish development and could open the door to another leg lower.

GDX

Mining stocks surged but gave back much of their gains Thursday. As long as prices finish the week above $74.00, they will produce a weekly bullish engulfing candle, supporting the case for a bottom.

GDXJ

If juniors can hold this level ($97.60) into Fridays close, prices will form a bullish weekly engulfing candle, supporting the case for a bottom.

SILJ

Silver juniors need to finish the week above $25.00 to complete a weekly bullish engulfing candle.

Conclusion

Metals and mining stocks continue to carve out important lows, similar to the pattern seen in 2006 before their longer-term uptrends resumed.

At the same time, rising tensions in the Middle East could place upward pressure on oil prices, leading to higher Treasury yields and a stronger U.S. dollar. Those factors could remain a near-term headwind for precious metals, even as the longer-term technical backdrop continues to improve.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and an expert in technical analysis. For more price predictions and daily market commentary, consider subscribing at www.GoldPredict.com.