Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – July 6, 2017 Forecast

August Comex gold futures are trading higher shortly ahead of the cash market opening. However, the market has given up over half of its early session gains after buyers failed to show up to extend the rally.

A weaker U.S. Dollar may be providing some support as well as speculative buying in reaction to the situation between the U.S. and North Korea.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1216.50 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

On Wednesday, gold formed a lower-low, higher close on the daily chart. The market also closed above the opening, but failed to close above the mid-point of the session. This chart pattern could lead to a 2 to 3 day rally, but the move may not be as strong as a regular closing price reversal bottom.

The short-term range is $1260.00 to $1216.50. If the upside momentum continues then look for a test of its retracement zone at $1238.30 to $1243.40.

The main range is $1298.80 to $1216.50. Its retracement zone at $1257.70 to $1267.40 is the primary upside target.

Forecast

Based on the current price at $1222.70 and the earlier price action, the direction of the gold market today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending angle at $1228.00.

A sustained move under $1228.00 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could create enough downside momentum to challenge the minor bottom at $1216.50. This is followed by a longer-term downtrending angle at $1214.80.

Crossing to the weak side of the angle at $1214.80 will put gold in a bearish position with the March 10 main bottom at $1201.40 the next downside target.

A sustained move over $1228.00 will signal the presence of buyers. This could trigger an acceleration to the upside with the next target the short-term 50% level at $1238.30, followed by the resistance cluster at $1243.40 to $1244.00.

Basically, look for the selling pressure to continue on a sustained move under $1228.00 and for an upside bias to begin on a sustained move over this angle.