Gold (XAU) Daily Forecast: Triple Top Signals Sell-Off Below $2,475

By:

Arslan Ali

Published: Aug 13, 2024, 07:02 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

Gold faces resistance near $2,476 with potential for a bearish correction.
Rising Middle East tensions may limit gold's losses despite positive risk sentiment.
Dovish Fed expectations and cooling inflation support gold prices amid a weaker USD.

In this article:

Gold

-1.80%

Market Overview

Gold prices (XAU/USD) struggled to sustain the previous day’s gains, turning bearish around the $2,461.53 level and reaching an intraday low of $2,458.56.

This decline is attributed to positive risk sentiment and repositioning ahead of crucial U.S. inflation data, which tends to reduce demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

However, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and fears of a broader regional conflict may limit further losses for gold.

Additionally, dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, which are keeping U.S. Dollar (USD) bulls on the defensive, are likely to provide some support to gold prices. Traders are now focused on the upcoming U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for further direction.

Fed Rate Cut Hopes and Cooling Inflation Lift Gold Prices Amid Weaker Dollar

The broad-based U.S. dollar is losing traction as dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations keep USD bulls on the defensive, which supports non-yielding gold prices. Markets anticipate a significant 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Fed in September, boosting the yellow metal.

Meanwhile, upcoming U.S. inflation data, including the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Tuesday and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday, are expected to show cooling inflation in July, potentially allowing the Fed room to ease policy.

Market forecasts suggest a 0.2% increase in both headline and core CPI, following June’s 0.1% decline. However, if the CPI readings exceed expectations, it could dampen hopes for aggressive Fed rate cuts, which may, in turn, put downward pressure on gold prices.

Rising Geopolitical Tensions in the Middle East Boost Demand for Safe-Haven Gold

Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are dampening market optimism and driving increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Israel has intensified its operations near Khan Younis in southern Gaza, fueling concerns of a broader regional conflict.

The situation has escalated further with Israel’s preparations for a possible retaliatory attack by Iran and Hezbollah following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned Ukraine of a strong response to its recent cross-border incursion into the Kursk region. These developments are contributing to uncertainty, bolstering gold prices as investors seek stability amidst rising geopolitical risks.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold prices face resistance near $2,476, with potential for a bearish correction. Immediate support is at $2,443.98. Keep an eye on upcoming U.S. inflation data for further direction.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold – Chart

Gold (XAU/USD) prices are currently trading at $2,461.53, down 0.35% on the 4-hour chart. The key pivot point is at $2,476.44, which is providing strong resistance, reinforced by a triple top pattern.

Additionally, the formation of a spinning top candle followed by three bullish candles suggests a potential for a bearish correction as gold enters an overbought zone. If the price remains below $2,476, we might see further downward movement.

Immediate support is found at $2,443.98, and if this level is tested, gold could see a potential bounce. However, the bearish bias remains strong unless the price breaks above $2,476.44.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

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