Gold (XAU/USD) & Silver Price Forecast: Gold Holds Above $4,250 Ahead of U.S. Payrolls

Gold News: Payrolls Countdown and Central Bank Demand Support Precious Metals

The fundamentals for gold and silver are still anticipating Friday’s NFP reports, the last of the major macro which will allow the market to recalibrate their Fed expectations. Following the July ADP report, where it was reported that only 44,000 new private sector jobs were created (the worst report in 6 months), and jobs were expected to be created, the market seems to believe the labor market is slowing.

Today’s new jobless claims will be the last labor market data before the Friday report. It is expected that the July NFP report will show that new jobs increased by 80,000 to 90,000 new jobs, a reduction from June’s 121,000, and a labor market participation rate near 4.2%, and an NFP report that is expected to be weak would suggest that the Fed will be more aggressive with monetary easing and if the report is strong the opposite would be true.

Despite dominating gold market through the changes in monetary policy, data from the World Gold Council agrees that central banks were net gold buyers in 2026. In addition, with the ongoing trade issues, safe-haven demand is expected to strengthen as the headwinds of interest rates begin to weaken.

Silver remains optimistic based on strong industrial demand. Investment in the infrastructure of artificial intelligence, solar photovoltaic (PV) growth, expansion of the power grid, and investment in advanced electronics is rapidly increasing. This is creating rapidly evolving industrial consumption, despite global manufacturing activity slowing. Labor market data has shifted focus, making precious metals surge, and reacting the most to upcoming Friday payrolls, which should provide underpinning for the Federal Reserve. This should also help with the global macroeconomic impact.                                                   

Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Analysis: Gold Holds Above $4,250 as Bulls Target Record Highs

Gold is trading at $4263 after recently breaking above the Fibonacci retracement level of $4237. The bullish momentum is further confirmed by the break of the 50-period (4,138) and 100-period (4,109) EMAs by the price. The price then tested the $4,305 resistance and pulled back.

The RSI is showing price is buying strongly but is nearing overbought at 68. Gold is likely to test the $4,305 resistance level on the next price extension with the $4,343 and $4,384 levels the following targets.

Gold is likely to test the $4,196 support and the $4,162 support as the price pulls back. Overall, the bullish structure is still intact.

Silver (XAG/USD) Technical Analysis: Silver Consolidates After Strong Breakout Above $61.40

Spot Silver prices are trading at $62.27 after breaking the descending trendline and the 23.6% Fibonacci level of $61.42. Silver prices are holding above the 50-period ($59.82) and 100-period ($59.38) EMAs with an uptrend.

The RSI has positively diverged with the price and is showing buying interest or momentum, currently in the 66 range and is nearing the overbought zone. The price is targeting the $62.92 resistance level.

A break through this level would open the way to resistance at $64.11 and $65.20. The near term support level is $61.42. Silver holders are in control of the bullish market trend as long as prices remain above $61.42.