Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Gold Eyes $4772.17 to $4968.06 Ahead of PCE and Warsh

PCE and Warsh Will Decide Whether Gold Keeps Running

Spot Gold opened the week with buyers in control as the dollar stayed weak and the metal extended Friday’s gains above last week’s high. The rally is running into a week that will test it from multiple directions. Wednesday’s PCE inflation report hits first. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole on Friday with the 10-year yield near 4.7% and the 30-year around 5.25%.

Crude oil is still carrying Iran risk near the highs. Consumer confidence and new-home sales Tuesday and unemployment claims Thursday fill in the gaps before Warsh reaches the podium. Gold is not trading one report this week. It is trading the combined reaction in the dollar and Treasury yields across all of them.

At 05:13 GMT, Spot Gold (XAUUSD) was trading at $4,641.19, up $38.20, or 0.83%.

The PCE Number Lands Before Jackson Hole and That Order Matters

Wednesday’s PCE report is the week’s first major risk event. Economists expect core PCE to rise 0.2% from the prior month, keeping the annual rate near 3.3%. Headline PCE is expected to rise 0.1%, putting the yearly rate near 3.6%. The report also includes July personal income and spending data, along with an updated estimate of second-quarter economic growth. That gives the bond market several numbers to trade at the same time.

The trade that helped gold move higher last week was built on a weaker dollar and softer rate expectations. The PCE number will tell the market whether that trade still has room to work or whether inflation is going to hand control back to yields.

PCE arrives two days before Warsh speaks. The data sets the tone before the Fed chair reaches the podium, and the market will already be positioned by the time Jackson Hole starts.

Warsh Has Not Tipped His Hand and the Long Bond Is Priced for It

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh addresses the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on Friday. It will be his first major address at the event since becoming Fed chair, and the market is not waiting for a routine speech. Warsh has avoided giving clear signals about the next move in interest rates. That has left traders working from the data, the bond market and every shift in the inflation outlook.

The long bond is pricing the cost of government borrowing, stubborn inflation, and debt that has moved above $40 trillion. Gold has support from the weak dollar and concern over the cost of funding Washington, but yields at these levels still give sellers a reason to show up. That conflict has been the gold trade for weeks and Warsh is the next voice that can move it.

The Fed chair is not the only speaker at Jackson Hole. The symposium runs from Thursday through Saturday and other policymaker comments can move the dollar and yields before the week ends.

Oil and Iran Are Still Feeding the Inflation Side of This Trade

Oil is the other piece gold buyers cannot ignore this week. Brent crude has been near $93 and West Texas Intermediate near $86. The U.S.-Iran conflict and risk to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are keeping supply concerns alive and crude near the highs.

Crude eased Monday as traders waited for details of new U.S. sanctions against Iran that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to announce. That pause matters. Oil had been feeding the inflation side of the rate trade, and tougher sanctions can put crude back on the bid. Gold held together Friday when the dollar was weak and yields eased. This week tests whether it can keep doing that while oil, sanctions and the Fed are all in play at the same time.

Weekly Spot Gold (XAUUSD) Technical Analysis

Spot Gold is moving higher early Monday after taking out last week’s high at $4632.15. The rally is being fueled by a breakout over the 52-week moving average at $4396.84, which is new support.

The main range is $5,602.23 to $3,942.10. Its 50% to 61.8% retracement zone at $4,772.17 to $4,968.06 is the main objective. We could see some profit-taking on the first test of $4,772.17, which could lead to a retest of the 52-week moving average. However, a sustained move over $4,772.17 could generate enough momentum to challenge the 61.8% retracement level at $4,968.06.

What to Watch

PCE Wednesday decides the first move. Warsh Friday decides whether that reaction holds into the weekend. The dollar and Treasury yields carry everything between them. Gold has the bid heading into the week. Whether buyers can hold it through Friday depends on whether the data and the Fed chair keep the rate trade on the defensive or hand it back to the long bond.

The 52-week moving average breakout is the chart story heading into the week. The retracement zone at $4,772.17 to $4,968.06 is the next objective and the first test of $4,772.17 could draw profit-taking. Gold needs the fundamental side to keep cooperating to reach it.

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