Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Forecast: Markets Brace for FOMC Minutes and Delayed NFP Data

Market Overview

Gold and silver began the week on the defensive as investors responded to a firmer U.S. dollar and a cautious tone from Federal Reserve officials. The combination has tempered appetite for precious metals, which typically benefit when markets anticipate lower interest rates and weaker yields.

Several Fed policymakers, including Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, emphasized that inflation remains “too high,” noting that policy should continue to “lean against strong demand.” His comments reinforced the view that additional rate cuts are unlikely in the near term.

According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the December meeting slipped below 50% last week, reflecting fading confidence in rapid easing.

This shift has been particularly restrictive for gold, which has now faced three consecutive sessions of selling pressure. Silver tracked the move, struggling to attract inflows despite broader market uncertainty.

Delayed U.S. Data Adds to Market Caution

Investor positioning was further shaped by delays in key U.S. economic releases, a result of the prolonged government shutdown. October’s Nonfarm Payrolls report—originally scheduled earlier—is now expected on Thursday, one of several data points pushed back by administrative disruptions.

The uncertainty surrounding these releases has encouraged market participants to maintain defensive USD positions, keeping the dollar on firmer footing. A stronger dollar traditionally weighs on gold and silver by making them more expensive for non-U.S. buyers.

Economists also note that while the shutdown may soften overall economic momentum, traders remain reluctant to price in fresh rate cuts until clearer evidence emerges. For now, the dollar remains the preferred haven, particularly as investors brace for a crowded data week.

Safe-Haven Flows Offer Limited Support

Lingering geopolitical tensions and concerns over global supply routes continue to generate modest safe-haven demand for precious metals, but the support has not been strong enough to offset policy-driven headwinds. Analysts suggest that the market is waiting for more definitive signals from the Federal Reserve before committing to new positions.

All Eyes on FOMC Minutes and NFP

The release of Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes and Thursday’s delayed Nonfarm Payrolls report is expected to be decisive for both gold and silver. Traders will look for any insight into the Fed’s tolerance for slowing growth and whether policymakers are prepared to adjust their stance heading into year-end.

Until then, precious metals are likely to remain constrained by a firm U.S. dollar and cautious rate expectations.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold may stay pressured near $4,078 unless it reclaims $4,112–$4,140, while silver holds around $51 but risks deeper losses if $50.05 breaks, exposing $48.45 in the short term.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold is holding near $4,078 after dropping out of its rising channel, signalling a loss of upward momentum. Price is now trading below the 20-SMA, which has turned into short-term resistance near $4,112, while the 200-SMA remains well below at $3,964, showing the broader trend is still intact.

The rejection from $4,244 created a clean reversal, and the RSI sitting in the low-40s reflects weakening momentum after failing to reclaim the mid-range.

A break below $4,032 would expose $3,963, while a move back above $4,112–$4,140 is needed to shift the tone. Until then, gold is likely to stay pressured beneath the broken channel.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver is holding near $51.00, stabilizing along a rising trendline that has supported the uptrend since early November. Price is sitting just above a key demand zone around $50.05–50.65, where buyers previously stepped in aggressively. The 20-SMA is now acting as soft resistance after the sharp pullback from $54.47, while the 200-SMA remains well below, signaling that the broader structure is still intact.

Momentum is subdued, with the RSI hovering near the low-40s after breaking out of overbought conditions.

A close below $50.05 would weaken the trend and expose $48.45, while reclaiming $52.41 would suggest buyers are regaining control. For now, silver remains supported but vulnerable.