Gold attempts to rebound after the strong sell-off as traders focus on U.S. dollar’s pullback.
The American currency is losing ground against a broad basket of currencies as traders react to falling Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries tested the 4.10% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries declined towards 4.38%. Treasury yields are moving lower as traders focus on the recent pullback in the oil markets and bet that Fed will not raise rates aggressively.
It should be noted that FedWatch Tool indicates that Fed will likely raise the federal funds rate by 25 bps in September. There is a 29.0% probability that Fed will raise the federal funds rate by 50 bps by the end of the year. Traders do not expect that Fed will start cutting rates anytime soon. Hawkish Fed policy outlook is the key bearish catalyst for gold markets right now. Rising interest rates are bearish for gold prices as gold pays no interest.
The rebound in the oil markets did not put any pressure on gold prices today. Oil markets have pulled back by roughly 40% from April highs, and intraday fluctuations have no impact on gold markets.
Currently, gold is trying to settle above the resistance at $4020 – $4040. In case this attempt is successful, gold will head towards the next resistance, which is located in the $4180 – $4200 range.
On the support side, a move below the $3950 level will open the way to the test of the support at $3880 – $3900. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain additional momentum in the near term.
Silver moved higher as gold/silver ratio pulled back towards the 69.00 level. The recent rally in gold/silver ratio served as one of the key bearish catalysts for silver markets. In case gold/silver ratio settles above the 70.50 level, it will head towards February highs near 72.50, which will be bearish for silver markets.
From the technical point of view, silver failed to settle below the support at $56.00 – $57.00 and is trying to climb above the $59.00 level. In case this attempt is successful, silver will move towards the resistance level at $61.00 – $62.00.
On the support side, a successful test of the support at $56.00 – $57.00 will push silver towards the next support, which is located in the $51.00 – $52.00 range.
Platinum has also moved higher amid broad rebound in precious metals markets. Palladium markets were up by +1.4%, which was bullish for platinum.
The nearest resistance level for platinum is located in the $1600 – $1620 range. If platinum climbs above the $1620 level, it will head towards the next resistance level at $1680 – $1700. RSI has recently moved away from the oversold territory, so there is plenty of room to gain additional upside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
On the support side, platinum needs to settle below the $1550 level to gain downside momentum in the near term. In this case, platinum will head towards the support at $1500 – $1520.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.
Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.