Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Gold Eyes $4,800 Reclaim – Is a $4,860 Rally Next?

Gold Takes a Hit as Dollar and Oil Soar

Gold lost some ground on April 13th, dipping to around $4,710-$4,735 after backing off from a recent high of almost $4,800. And that 0.7 to 1.9% drop isn’t a surprise considering the whole macro picture has shifted since US-Iran talks fell apart and the US announced a naval blockade. The combined impact of all that is a pretty big jump in oil prices. Crude went up by more than 8%, lifted inflation expectations and gave the US dollar a boost, which of course put some pressure on gold.

But with Treasury yields going up, non-yielding assets just aren’t as appealing as they used to be. Yet even though gold pulled back a bit, it’s still got some support from central banks and investors wanting to hedge against geopolitical risks. Analysts say while the short term is all about dollar strength and inflation data, the demand for gold is actually quite solid.

Silver Heads Lower Alongside Gold Due to Industrial Sensitive Price Action

Silver was right behind gold, losing some ground to trade around $73.60-$75.00 with a loss of around 1.5 – 2.4% for the day. And that’s because silver has got that dual role going on – it’s an industrial metal as much as a monetary one. When oil prices went up and the dollar got stronger, that was the cue for a bit of profit-taking after silver had been rising when tensions were easing.

Industrial demand still looks good – especially in solar and electronics – but the near term is all about what’s happening with global growth and inflation worries. That said, there’s still a pretty solid longer term outlook in place because there’s a supply deficit forecast for 2026 and that’s still supporting the view that silver has got a bit of a story to tell despite all the volatility.

Gold Price Outlook: Uptrend Holds as Momentum Builds

Gold is now hovering around $4,780 and – judging by the charts – looks like it’s just getting back on track. The price has not only clawed its way back up to the 50-period EMA but is trying to establish itself just above the 200-period moving average, all of which is telling us that the medium-term view is looking a lot more positive.

The RSI is creeping up towards the 60 mark, but so far it’s still got plenty of room to keep moving upwards before it even thinks about getting overbought. Now, the big question is – will Gold manage to push on through $4,800 and keep on going all the way to $4,860, or will it start to stumble and pull back down to the $4,700 zone if it can’t even hold $4,740.

Silver Technical Analysis: Breakout Structure Gains Strength

Silver is now trading around $77.80, and I think what’s really clear is that this is a gold price that has just broken through a big barrier in the form of that key consolidation zone at $75.50. The fact that the price action is now actually built around an upward sloping trendline, with the 50-period EMA about to cross over the 200-period average, says to me that we are probably on the verge of a bullish crossover.

The RSI is now just about to hit 65, which is probably going to be the point at which all the buying pressure starts to tail off a bit. Still, so long as it stays above that $75.50 resistance level I’m going to be pretty optimistic about the outlook. And if Silver can actually push on above $78.50 then who knows, it might even start to make a beeline for $82.50 in the near future.