Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Tariffs vs. Fed Policy – Gold’s $5,250 Break?

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) managed to keep a hold on its modestly bullish trend but just couldn’t seem to push above 5,200. We had a bit of modest upward momentum going on, but it was largely driven by worries about geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties, which are boosting demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

The gains in gold prices may not be too far-reaching as lower expectations for Federal rate cuts seem to be supporting the US dollar and capping the potential for any further gains in gold.

Gold Prices Hit by US-Iran Tensions, Trade Tariffs & Fed Policy Uncertainty

The situation between the US and Iran is still a complete mess. US President Donald Trump mentioned that the US might attack Iran. He made it pretty clear he doesn’t want Iran getting its hands on any nuclear weapons. It all just adds to the concern that things could get ugly in the region quick.

Meanwhile, trade tensions between the US and other countries are still running hot: the US slapped a 10% tariff on a range of imported goods and is now even talking about raising it to 15%. That’s raising the spectre of possible retaliation from other countries, which in turn is damaging investor confidence in the market. As a result a lot of investors are playing it super cautious – and this is actually helping gold out as it’s seen as a safe bet in uncertain times.

Back in the US meanwhile, the market is now expecting smaller interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve because the notes from their last meeting don’t give any strong hint of needing to lower rates. Some Fed officials have even been talking about the possibility of raising rates if inflation stays high. All of this means the US dollar is as strong as ever – and keeping a lid on gold’s rise.

Gold On Track for Fourth Straight Weekly Gain Amid Inflation Worries & Fed Speeches

Next up for gold (XAU/USD) is the upcoming US Producer Price Index (PPI) data later in the session, plus speeches from some top Federal Reserve officials – which are bound to shape expectations about future interest rates.

Despite the events on the horizon, gold (XAU/USD) looks set to chalk up gains for the fourth week running as the uncertainty and cautious mood in the market keep boosting safe-haven demand.

Gold Price Forecast: $5,155 Support Anchors Rally as Channel Targets $5,330

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading around $5,180 on the 2-hour chart, hanging tight above the $5,155 support level as it bounces back within a rising channel. The 50 EMA, currently at $5,150, is acting as a bit of a safety net at the moment, while the 200 EMA near $5,046 reinforces the overall bullish outlook.

We’ve got resistance coming in at $5,247, with another level at $5,292 and then $5,331 on the upper border of the channel. Just to reiterate, the RSI is looking a bit back and forth around 55 – not necessarily a clear signal but it is at least suggesting that the momentum is constructive.

Trade idea: Consider a buy above $5,250, and if you do, look to sell at $5,330. A stop loss below $5,150 might be a good idea.

Silver Price Forecast: Rising Channel Holds Above $88.70 as $92.30 Supply Tests Bulls

Silver (XAG/USD) is currently trading around $89.95 on the 2-hour chart, and we’re seeing a nice little run within an ascending channel. The price just defended the $88.70 support level, which happens to align with the 50 EMA near $88.80, and that reinforces the short-term demand.

While the overall structure remains bullish above the 200 EMA at $85.70, we’ve got our first piece of resistance at $92.30 – a bit of a previous supply zone – and then other levels at $94.87 and $98.54 just above that upper border of the channel.

Just to give you a better idea of the picture, the RSI is looking a bit in the middle of the road at 58 – it’s not telling us the market is totally overextended or anything.

Trade idea: Take a look at a buy above $92.40 and see if you can get a nice little profit at $94.80. A stop loss below $88.70 might not be a bad idea.