Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: XAU Eyes $4,000 as Fed Cut Odds Fall Below 50%

Market Overview

Gold extended its losing streak on Monday, marking a fourth consecutive session of declines as traders reassessed expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. The shift in sentiment came after several policymakers signaled a more cautious stance on easing, dampening investor appetite for non-yielding assets such as gold and silver.

Silver followed gold’s trajectory, slipping roughly 1.4% in early European trading. Analysts say the move reflects not only lower expectations of monetary easing but also persistent economic uncertainty in the US, where growth remains uneven and inflation progress is slowing.

Fed Signals Patience as Policy Nears Neutral Zone

Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson noted that inflation risks have “moderated considerably” but emphasized that the policy rate remains “somewhat restrictive.” He urged patience as the central bank approaches a more neutral setting.

The CME FedWatch Tool now assigns a probability of less than 50% for a 25-basis-point rate cut at the December meeting, a sharp pullback from the 70% odds seen earlier this month.

“Markets had become too confident in a rapid easing cycle,” said a senior commodities strategist at a London-based investment bank. “The Fed’s latest remarks recalibrated those expectations, which naturally weighs on precious metals.”

Dollar Volatility and Fiscal Concerns Cushion Losses

Despite the bearish tone, gold’s decline has been partially offset by continued volatility in the US dollar. The greenback weakened after concerns grew over the economic cost of Washington’s prolonged budget negotiations.

A delayed release of key data, including Nonfarm Payrolls and FOMC Minutes later this week, could further influence short-term market direction.

Broader Market Uncertainty Sustains Safe-Haven Interest

While tightening expectations weigh on metals, underlying global uncertainties continue to support a baseline of safe-haven demand. Energy-market disruptions and regional conflicts have kept investors cautious, preventing a deeper sell-off.

Looking ahead, traders will focus on incoming inflation readings and Fed commentary to gauge whether policy easing could be revived early next year.

Analysts note that any renewed dovish tilt or weaker macro data could quickly restore momentum for gold and silver amid still-fragile investor confidence.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold may stay pressured near $4,000, with risk toward $3,960 if sentiment remains weak. Silver hovers around $49.40, facing downside toward $48.40 unless a rebound above $50.00 confirms renewed demand.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading near $4,008 after breaking below the rising channel that guided its recent uptrend. Sellers are testing the 200-EMA, a critical support around $4,000. RSI readings near 35 show bearish momentum but hint at possible oversold conditions.

A daily close below $3,963 could accelerate losses toward $3,884, while a rebound above $4,041 may trigger a corrective move toward $4,110 and $4,167. The short-term bias stays bearish unless buyers defend the $4,000 level with strong reversal candles like a hammer or bullish engulfing.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading near $49.44 after breaking below its ascending trendline, signaling weakening bullish momentum. The metal is now testing the 200-EMA around $48.45, a key level that could determine short-term direction. RSI readings near 35 show bearish pressure, though oversold conditions may limit further downside

. A sustained drop below $48.45 could open the door toward $47.20 and $45.60, while recovery above $50.06 may trigger a rebound toward $51.40. The 20-EMA continues to slope downward, reinforcing the bearish bias, yet long lower wicks hint at early buying interest.