Hang Seng Index News: Ceasefire Talks vs. War Drums—Key Levels in Focus

Trump’s Tehran Warning Jolts Markets as Hang Seng Falters

The Israel-Iran conflict took center stage for a fifth session on Tuesday, June 17. Hopes of a swift end to the war faded as President Trump called on Tehran to evacuate, signaling a potential escalation in attacks on Iranian sites

A further escalation in tensions could trigger a broader regional conflict, potentially driving crude oil prices back toward $80. Higher oil prices may fuel inflationary pressures, forcing central banks to cease rate cuts, potentially impacting the global economy and risk sentiment. WTI was up 0.96% to $70.515 in morning trading.

The Hang Seng Index dipped on June 17, with EV and tech stocks under selling pressure.

Market focus remains on the Israel-Iran war, trade headlines, and stimulus chatter from Beijing. These factors may determine whether the Hang Seng Index drops toward 23,500 or retargets 24,500.

Hang Seng Index Dips as EV and Tech Stocks Retreat

US equity markets rallied on June 16, with the Nasdaq Composite Index gaining 1.52% amid rising optimism about an Israel-Iran ceasefire. However, Trump’s overnight messages, calling on Tehran to evacuate, impacted risk sentiment in early trading on June 17. The Hang Seng Index slipped 0.13% to 24,029. Mainland China’s markets also trended lower, with the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite Index dropping 0.15% and 0.19%, respectively.

EV and Tech Stocks Drop

Fears of an escalation in Middle East tensions and potential crude oil supply disruption weighed on tech and EV stocks. Tech heavyweights Baidu (09888) and Tencent (00700) declined by 0.12% and 0.04%, respectively.

EV stocks saw heavier losses, with BYD (01211) dropping 0.62% while Li Auto (02015) slid 1.53%.

Trump Signals Israel Attack on Tehran

President Trump spooked investors overnight, stating:

“Iran should have signed the “deal” I told them to sign. What a shame, and waste of human life. Simply stated, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. I said it over and over again! Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!”

The comments came after Iran reportedly asked Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia to ask Trump to pressure Israel into agreeing on an immediate ceasefire. According to media outlets, Iran would show flexibility in nuclear negotiations if Israel stopped attacking.

However, the market losses were mild in early trading on June 17. Reports of another attempt to end the Israel-Iran conflict cushioned the downside. According to CN Wire:

“Trump team proposes Iran talks this week on nuclear deal, ceasefire. White House discussing with Iran possibility of meeting between US envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.”

Key Levels: 23,500 Support or 24,500 Breakout?

On June 17, the Hang Seng Index held above its mid-May to early June congestion zone, trading above 24,000. The Israel-Iran conflict and ongoing US-China trade uncertainties remained headwinds.

Easing Middle East tensions may support a breakout from 24,000, bringing the June 11 high of 24,439 into play. A sustained move through 24,439 could pave the way to 25,000. Conversely, an escalation in the Iran-Israel war could drag the index toward 23,750. A sustained drop below 23,750 may enable the bears to target 23,500, and the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Any stimulus moves from Beijing would likely accelerate a move toward 24,500.

Hang Seng Technical Outlook

• Resistance: 24,439, then 25,000.
• Support: 24,000, 23,750, then 23,500 and the 50-day EMA at 23,212.
• Short-term Bias: Bullish, hinged on trade developments, Middle East tensions, and stimulus rhetoric.

Forecast Summary: Will Iran Sign a Nuclear Agreement, or Will 24,000 Give Way First?

The Hang Seng Index holds above its May-June congestion zone. However, concerns about an escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict and regional stability remain a headwind. A ceasefire and progress toward a US-Iran nuclear agreement would boost demand for risk assets. In the meantime, resistance at 24,000 will likely cap any upside.

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