Hang Seng Index News Trump-Brokered Iran-Israel Ceasefire Fuels Risk Appetite

Markets Rally as President Trump Declares Iran-Israel Ceasefire

President Trump announced an Iran-Israel ceasefire overnight, easing fears of a broader Middle East conflict. The announcement followed US airstrikes on Iran’s key nuclear sites and a warning of further action if Iran retaliated. A de-escalation would remove the threat of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, oil price spikes, and inflationary pressures. WTI crude oil prices tumbled 9.22% to close the June 23 session at $66.775.

On June 24, the Hang Seng Index reversed Monday’s losses in early trading as EV and tech stocks rebounded.

Middle East developments, trade headlines, and stimulus news remain key drivers. These factors will likely dictate if the Hang Seng Index drops below 23,500 or revisits 24,500.

Hang Seng Index Jumps as Oil Prices Slump

US equity markets posted gains in the Monday, June 23 session, with the Nasdaq Composite Index rising by 0.94%. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng Index rallied 1.95% to 24,151 in morning trading on June 24 as investors reacted to the ceasefire news. Mainland China’s markets also advanced, with the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite Index up 1.09% and 1%, respectively.

EV and Tech Stocks Rebound

A de-escalation in Middle East tensions eased fears of oil supply disruption driving inflation pressures, potentially forcing central banks to hike interest rates. Market relief triggered rebounds across EV and tech stocks, sending the Hang Seng Index higher.

Tech giants Alibaba (09988) and Baidu (09888) jumped 2.08% and 1.44%, respectively, driving the Hang Seng Tech Index up 2.28%.

EV stocks outpaced the tech heavyweights, with BYD (01211) and Li Auto (02015) surging 3.49% and 4.75%, respectively.

Middle East Conflict: Ceasefire Boosts US-Iran Nuclear Deal Hopes

On June 23, President Trump declared an Iran-Israel ceasefire, stating:

“It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED!”

Soon after Trump’s announcement, Israel declared a ceasefire with Iran, bolstering demand for risk.

Technical Setup: 24,500 Resistance in Focus as Geopolitical Tensions Ease

On June 24, the Hang Seng Index climbed above the May-early June congestion zone, reclaiming the 24,000 handle. Significantly, the index remained above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating a bullish bias.

A lasting Iran-Israel truce and progress toward a US-Iran nuclear deal could drive the index toward a June 11 high of 24,439. A sustained move above 24,439 could open the door to retesting the March high of 24,874. Conversely, the Hang Seng Index could drop below 24,000, exposing the June low of 22,668 if Iran or Israel breaks the ceasefire.

Hang Seng Technical Outlook

• Resistance: 24,439, and then 24,874.
• Support: 24,000, the 50-day EMA at 23,294, then 23,000.
• Short-term Bias: Bullish but contingent on Middle East developments, trade headlines, and stimulus-related news.

Outlook: Will the Ceasefire Hold or Will the Index Drop Below 24,000?

The Hang Seng Index traded above its recent congestion range on June 24. However, an escalation in Iran-Israel tensions or stalled US-Iran nuclear talks could renew selling pressure, bringing sub-24,000 into view. On the other hand, progress toward a US-Iran nuclear deal would boost sentiment. In the meantime, resistance at 24,500 may limit the upside without further positive developments.

Brian Tycangco, editor at Stansberry Research, remarked on the potential risks of renewed Middle East tensions, asking:

“What are the odds this truce lasts ‘til the end of the week?”

What’s next for the Hang Seng? Stay informed with real-time updates as geopolitical risks and US-China developments drive sentiment. Follow our live coverage and consult our economic calendar.