Is Bitcoin’s “Disbelief Phase” About to Trigger a $150K Short Squeeze?

Bitcoin (BTC) futures market reveal persistent negative funding rates, suggesting that most traders remain bearish toward the cryptocurrency despite its circa 8% rebound from the Oct. 9 crash.

In other words, most anticipate the ongoing BTC recovery to lose momentum at some point. But that is exactly when the cryptocurrency may rally, if history is to be believed.

Bitcoin Traders Still Don’t Trust the Rally

Funding rates on Binance, which reflect the cost of holding long or short positions in perpetual futures, have stayed negative for six of the past seven days, now hovering around –0.004%, according to CryptoQuant.

Negative funding rates indicate that short positions outweigh longs, showing that traders expect prices to fall further.

This cautious mood comes after the massive liquidation wave on Oct. 10, which wiped out billions in leveraged long positions. That event shook trader confidence, making many hesitant to believe in any new uptrend.

Even as prices recovered, traders kept shorting Bitcoin, expecting the rally to fade. This mindset often marks what analysts call the “disbelief phase,” when markets begin to recover, but most participants are still mentally stuck in the previous downturn.

Ironically, this disbelief can help push prices even higher. When Bitcoin rises while many traders are short, it can trigger a short squeeze, a chain reaction of forced buybacks that rapidly lifts prices.

For instance, in September 2024, negative funding rates preceded a rally from $54,000 to over $100,000. Then again in April 2025, the same pattern helped Bitcoin surge from $85,000 to $123,000.

If history repeats, the current disbelief could once again become the fuel that drives Bitcoin’s next major breakout. Futures data points to liquidity clusters between $113,000 and $127,000, levels where large short positions could get wiped out.

Bitcoin Rebounds From Key Technical Support Hints at $150,000

Bitcoin’s latest bounce aligns closely with its long-term uptrend structure.

The cryptocurrency has once again rebounded from its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) near $100,000, a level that has consistently acted as a bull market support zone since mid-2024.

Each time BTC tested this moving average over the past 18 months, highlighted by the green circles on the chart, buyers stepped in aggressively, triggering strong follow-through rallies.

The next technical hurdle lies at the 20-week EMA (around $111,000), which Bitcoin is currently attempting to reclaim.

If BTC manages to flip this level into support, the price structure would mirror previous breakout phases that led to new all-time highs.

According to Fibonacci extension targets, the next key resistance appears near $150,000, aligning with the 2.618 level, a realistic year-end target if the short squeeze narrative unfolds in tandem with these bullish technical signals.