Nasdaq 100: AMD Soars 25% on OpenAI Deal, Nvidia Slips as Tech Stocks Diverge

Stock Futures Rise as AMD Surges on Major OpenAI Partnership

Stock futures climbed early Monday, buoyed by a landmark deal between AMD and OpenAI that could reshape the AI chip supply chain.

Dow futures added 92 points, while S&P 500 futures rose 0.3%. Nasdaq futures led with a 0.6% gain, fueled by a 25% premarket jump in AMD shares.

Why Is AMD Rallying on the OpenAI Deal?

Advanced Micro Devices soared after securing a multibillion-dollar agreement with OpenAI. The AI developer plans to take a 10% stake in AMD through warrants tied to performance milestones. In return, OpenAI will deploy 6 gigawatts of AMD’s Instinct GPUs over several years, starting with a 1 gigawatt rollout in late 2026.

This deal marks a significant win for AMD, long viewed as trailing Nvidia in the AI chip race. The warrant structure links OpenAI’s investment to AMD’s success, with tranches tied to deployment volume and AMD’s share price targets. While financial terms were not disclosed, analysts estimate the deal could be worth billions.

What Does This Mean for the AI Chip Supply Chain?

The partnership positions AMD as a core supplier to one of the most aggressive infrastructure players in AI. OpenAI’s broader roadmap includes 23 gigawatts of compute capacity, with an estimated $50 billion in construction costs per gigawatt. Combined with AMD and Nvidia’s contributions, OpenAI has committed around $1 trillion to new infrastructure in just two weeks.

Nvidia’s stock dipped 1% premarket following the news, reflecting concerns about increasing competition. Just two weeks ago, Nvidia signed its own $100 billion supply-and-equity deal with OpenAI. Now, with AMD and Broadcom joining as alternate suppliers, OpenAI appears to be diversifying hardware sources to reduce single-vendor reliance.

How Are Other Tech Players Positioned?

Oracle is helping build OpenAI’s data center sites, while Broadcom is in talks to develop custom chips for future AI models. This “circular economy” of AI hardware and investment highlights the concentrated nature of the AI ecosystem, where capital, compute, and equity flow within a tight group of firms. Analysts warn that any supply chain stress could reverberate across this closed loop.

What Should Traders Watch This Week?

With AMD now validated as a key AI hardware player, attention will turn to follow-through buying and possible re-ratings from analysts. Traders should monitor sector rotation within semiconductors and potential responses from Nvidia and other chipmakers. Key economic data this week includes jobless claims and Fed commentary, which could further sway sentiment in tech-heavy indexes.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.