Nasdaq 100 and S&P500: AI Rebound and Tariff Ruling Shape Stock Market Forecast

Stock Futures Edge Higher as AI Rebounds and Supreme Court Weighs Tariff Rollback

U.S. stock futures edged higher Thursday as AI-linked equities bounced back and traders monitored a key Supreme Court case that could reverse Trump-era tariffs. However, a sharp increase in corporate layoff announcements tempered enthusiasm. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures each rose 0.1%, while Dow futures dipped slightly by 6 points.

A rebound in semiconductor names helped lift sentiment early, with recent earnings strength adding momentum. Meanwhile, justices signaled skepticism over the legality of Section 232 tariffs imposed under the Trump administration, potentially paving the way for a decision that could unwind hundreds of billions in import duties—particularly on steel and aluminum—benefiting multinational and trade-exposed companies.

Is the AI Rally Gaining New Ground?

AI-related equities staged a modest comeback after facing valuation concerns earlier in the week. Advanced Micro Devices jumped over 2% Wednesday following strong Q3 results, lifting peers like Broadcom and Micron Technology by 2% and 9%, respectively. Oracle also recovered recent losses. Nvidia gained over 1% premarket, while Qualcomm, despite posting better-than-expected earnings, dipped 2% on cautious forward commentary.

Investor optimism is being bolstered by continued capital investment into AI infrastructure, not just from Big Tech but also major financial institutions. However, some strategists are advising restraint. Apollo’s Torsten Slok suggested trimming exposure to the “Magnificent Seven” and rebalancing portfolios for broader participation.

What Does the Latest Layoff Data Signal?

Newly released data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed that U.S. companies announced 153,074 job cuts in October—a 183% increase from September and the highest October total since 2003. The surge reflects ongoing labor adjustments during the AI boom and puts 2025 on pace to be the worst year for layoffs since 2009. With job creation slowing, the data adds a cautionary tone to otherwise upbeat equity momentum.

Which Stocks Are Leading Moves Before the Bell?

AI and tech names dominated early gainers. Snap soared 26% on a $500 million buyback and a $400 million deal with Perplexity AI. Figma rose nearly 6% after topping revenue forecasts and boosting full-year guidance. Arm Holdings climbed 3% on strong quarterly results.

Consumer and software names saw notable pressure. e.l.f. Beauty dropped 22% on weak revenue and a downbeat forecast. DoorDash fell 15% after missing earnings estimates, while Duolingo sank 17% despite a raised full-year outlook. Fortinet and Hubspot also declined sharply on cautious guidance, despite earnings beats.

What Are Traders Watching Next?

Market focus now turns to the Supreme Court’s upcoming ruling on tariff legality, which could unlock tailwinds for exporters if duties are reversed. Traders are also eyeing Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report for confirmation of labor market softness. With layoffs climbing and earnings season winding down, sentiment may hinge on whether recent data justifies rate cut expectations heading into 2026.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.