Nasdaq 100: Futures Index Testing 50-Day MA Support as Crude Oil Spikes Today

Broad Selling Hits as Oil and Warsh Collide

U.S. stocks are selling off across both exchanges Monday. Energy is the only S&P 500 sector in the green, up 0.97% as Brent crude rose 1.04%. The rest of the market is trading higher oil, higher long-end yields and a Fed chair who put September back on the table Friday.

At 17:35 GMT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 372.22 points, or 0.69%, at 53,187.77. The S&P 500 has lost 39.32 points, or 0.51%, to 7,672.44. The Nasdaq Composite is off 120.815 points, or 0.46%, at 26,281.608.

Daily September E-mini Nasdaq-100 Futures Technical Analysis

September E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index Futures are trading lower shortly after the mid-session on Monday. The market is currently pressing the weak side of the 50-day moving average at 29410.64. Trader reaction to this indicator will likely set the tone into the close.

A sustained move under the 50-day MA could indicate the presence of strong selling. If the move creates enough late session pressure, look for the selling to possibly extend into the intermediate 50% level at 29150.75.

Holding above the 50-day MA suggests early dip buyers are supporting the trade. Nonetheless, bullish traders could face an uphill battle with potential resistance levels scattered from the 61.8% level at 29610.75 to the swing top at 29811.50.

The secondary lower top at 30343.00 and the possibility of another break to the bearish side of the 50-day MA at 29410.64 both point to increasing selling pressure. The market may be getting ready to rollover to the downside, with a full retracement to 28772.25 to 28401.50 a strong possibility over the near-term.

Oil Ran and Warsh Made It Worse

The U.S.-Iran conflict moved back into the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend and crude responded Monday. Brent rose 1.04%. Last week crude lost more than 4% as traders pulled war premium out of the market. Monday they are putting it back. The market is not treating this as a one-day oil spike.

The Treasury Department tried earlier this month to calm the bond market with larger debt repurchases. That did not hold. The 10-year Treasury yield is near its highest level since January 2025. The 30-year remains above 5%. Through most of August the indices absorbed higher yields with AI earnings strength carrying the market. Monday oil and yields are both climbing and the indices are not absorbing it.

Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech is still in the price. He said Friday that better summer inflation readings did not show meaningful improvement in the underlying trend. Traders now see more than a 60% chance of a September rate increase, up from 41.4% a week ago. Bank of America said the burden is on Warsh to justify not raising unless the economy delivers a material downside surprise.

Consumer prices were mild in July but the Fed’s Personal Consumption Expenditures report came in hotter. The data is not settling the argument. The jobs report lands September 4 and the market is trading Warsh’s framing until then.

Monday’s Tape Does Not Look Like August

The selling is broad. Declining issues outnumber advancers 2.26-to-1 on the NYSE and 2.1-to-1 on the Nasdaq. Utilities fell 1.19%, the worst-performing sector with the 30-year yield above 5% already working against the group.

The Dow is still headed for a fifth straight monthly gain. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are on track to break two consecutive monthly declines. Technology carried most of August’s advance, led by Nvidia, Microsoft and Micron. Monday a handful of chip names are higher. The broader market is not following. The tape has not found a second group willing to take leadership from oil.

Stocks in the News

PG&E dropped 19.4% after California lawmakers blocked wildfire-liability reform. That is the stock’s worst session in more than six years. Nvidia rose 1.13% Monday. Sandisk gained 3.75%. Qualcomm added 2.49%. GameStop gained 4.5% after saying it would fund about 27% of a previously announced $1.4 billion debt exchange with cash instead of new shares.

What to Watch

The jobs report lands September 4 and crude and the long end of the Treasury curve are running the tape until then. Warsh laid out his case at Jackson Hole. The September hike probability moved from 41.4% to above 60% in a week and higher oil is not going to walk it back. Energy has the bid Monday. Buyers are not coming back to the rest of the tape with crude climbing and the long end repricing at the same time.

The Nasdaq-100 is pressing the weak side of its 50-day moving average. The secondary lower top at 30,343 and repeated tests of the 50-day at 29,410.64 point to increasing selling pressure. A rollover from here opens a retracement to the 28,772 to 28,401 zone.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.