Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Geopolitical Tensions Drive Crude Volatility, Gas Weakens

Market Overview

WTI crude futures slipped to $64.4 per barrel on Tuesday, retreating after a 2% rally that marked a three-week high. Traders remain focused on potential supply risks as geopolitical tensions raise concerns over disruptions in energy infrastructure.

At the same time, expectations of looser U.S. monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve signaling possible rate cuts in September, have added a layer of support by improving the demand outlook.

The combination of supply uncertainty and shifting macroeconomic policy continues to drive volatility in oil and gas markets, underscoring the fragile balance between risk premiums and economic growth prospects.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas futures are trading around $2.66, extending their downtrend within a clear descending channel. Price remains capped by the 50-EMA ($2.78) and 100-EMA ($2.88), both sloping lower and confirming ongoing bearish pressure.

Momentum indicators echo this weakness. The RSI sits near 38, leaning toward oversold territory but not yet signaling a reversal. Meanwhile, the MACD remains negative, with both signal lines under zero, reinforcing bearish momentum.
Immediate support lies at $2.62, followed by $2.56 and $2.50.

On the upside, bulls would need a break above $2.72 and then $2.78 to challenge the broader trend. Until then, rallies are likely to face selling pressure.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil is trading near $64.30 after a steady climb from last week’s lows. On the 4-hour chart, price remains supported by an ascending trendline, while the 50-EMA at $63.58 and 100-EMA at $64.06 are providing a pivot zone. A recent pullback from $65.12 shows some profit-taking, but support is holding above $64.00.

The RSI at 59 signals momentum is positive but not overheated, while the MACD stays above zero, suggesting buyers still have the upper hand. If price sustains above $64.00, a retest of $65.12 and possibly $66.46 is likely. On the downside, a break under $63.58 could shift focus back to $62.55 support.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude is holding near $67.80 after recent gains, with price action supported by an ascending trendline from mid-August. On the 4-hour chart, the 50-EMA at $67.18 and the 100-EMA at $67.37 are working as short-term support. A rejection from $68.37 shows sellers are active at resistance, but the structure of higher lows remains intact.

The RSI sits around 57, showing healthy momentum without overbought pressure, while the MACD is hovering just above neutral, signaling consolidation rather than weakness. As long as Brent stays above $67.10, buyers may push toward $68.37 and $69.14.

If price breaks below $67.10, downside risk increases toward $66.17 and $65.30. For now, the bias leans constructive while the trendline holds.