Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Inventories Fall but Markets Brace for Oversupply

Market Overview

Geopolitical tensions have pushed WTI crude toward $58 per barrel, its lowest level in five weeks, as signs of a possible diplomatic breakthrough raise expectations of increased global supply. A potential easing of restrictions on a major oil-producing nation has amplified concerns about oversupply at a time when production already exceeds consumption.

Adding to the mixed signals, US crude inventories declined by 1.9 million barrels last week, the first draw after three straight builds, offering only limited support. The combination of shifting geopolitical dynamics and evolving supply conditions continues to shape the near-term outlook for oil and natural gas markets.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas is trading near $4.48 after slipping below its ascending channel, signaling a shift in momentum. Price is struggling to reclaim the 20-EMA, while the 200-EMA now acts as resistance around $4.56.

RSI remains weak, hovering below mid-range with no signs of bullish divergence, which suggests buyers are still hesitant. If price fails to recover above $4.56, the market may drift toward $4.40 and $4.35 as next support zones.

A stronger rebound would require a break back inside the old channel, with $4.65 as the key level to confirm renewed upward momentum.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil is attempting a mild recovery after sliding toward the $57.38 support, but the broader structure still leans bearish. Price continues to move inside a descending channel, with each rebound capped by the upper band. The 20-EMA remains below the 200-EMA, keeping downside pressure intact.

A break above $59.05 would be the first sign of strength, opening room toward $59.96. If sellers step back in, a move below $57.38 could expose $56.59 and $55.70 as next support levels.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude is attempting a mild rebound after slipping toward $60.94, but the broader trend remains controlled by a descending channel. Price continues to respect the upper channel boundary, with repeated rejections near the 20-EMA, which keeps momentum tilted lower. The 200-EMA sits well above current levels, reinforcing the bearish bias.

A break above $62.68 would be the first sign of recovery, opening room toward $63.61. If sellers return, a drop below $60.94 could expose $60.06 and $59.35 as next supports.