Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: OPEC+ Supply and Geopolitical Risks Fuel Market Volatility

Market Overview

Crude oil futures slipped to $62.16 per barrel, extending a near 10% monthly decline, as energy markets grapple with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and rising OPEC+ supply. Traders remain cautious, balancing hopes for potential diplomatic progress with concerns over global demand.

The easing of sanctions on energy exports from major producers could reshape supply dynamics, adding further pressure to prices. Natural gas markets mirror this unease, with consolidation reflecting investor hesitation.

Until clarity emerges, volatility is likely to persist, keeping both crude and natural gas vulnerable to sharp swings in response to shifting geopolitical developments.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas futures are trading at $2.87, consolidating below a descending trendline that continues to cap upside moves. The 50-EMA ($2.878) and 100-EMA ($2.912) are aligned as overhead resistance, keeping momentum subdued. Until these levels are decisively reclaimed, rallies remain corrective within a broader downtrend.

Price action shows repeated rejections near $2.91–$2.93, confirming sellers’ presence. The RSI at 49 sits near neutral, reflecting indecision but leaning slightly bearish as it pulls back from recent highs.

If price breaks below $2.84, downside pressure could extend toward $2.81, with further weakness eyeing $2.77–$2.73. On the other hand, a clean breakout above $2.91 would shift the bias, opening the way toward $2.97–$3.03.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude is trading at $62.16, struggling to hold above the short-term support at $61.55. The chart highlights a clear downtrend, with price capped by a descending trendline and the 50-EMA ($63.55) and 100-EMA ($64.56) reinforcing overhead resistance. Until these levels are reclaimed, rallies remain corrective within a bearish structure.

The candlestick formation shows hesitation, with lower highs reinforcing sellers’ control. The RSI at 39 signals bearish momentum, leaning toward oversold but without a recovery signal yet. If price slips below $61.55, downside could extend toward $60.72–$59.91, which represent the next strong demand zones.

On the flip side, a sustained move above $62.83 would be needed to challenge resistance at $64.14 and shift momentum more neutral.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude is consolidating near $66.05, with price capped by a descending trendline and the 50-EMA at $66.65. The repeated rejections highlight persistent selling pressure below $67.04–$67.50 resistance, while downside remains cushioned at $65.40 and $64.73.

Candlesticks reveal hesitation with upper wicks signaling supply at higher levels. The RSI at 46 sits below neutral, suggesting momentum favors sellers but without oversold conditions. The 100-EMA at $67.41 adds barrier, reinforcing the bearish structure unless broken decisively.

A sustained close above $67.04 could shift momentum toward $67.69–$68.49, while failure to hold above $65.40 risks deeper declines toward $64.17. The current setup leans bearish within a corrective phase, awaiting a breakout confirmation.