Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Russian Cuts & Middle East Unrest Push Prices Higher

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Updated: Apr 4, 2024, 10:50 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

Middle East tensions and Russian supply cuts push oil to five-month highs.
Natural Gas sees slight gain, with technical indicators suggesting a bullish trend above $1.91.
Chinese economic rebound and mixed U.S. inventories moderate oil and gas price surge.

Market Overview

Oil prices have climbed to five-month peaks due to increasing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, suggesting potential supply disruptions. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, coupled with threats of Iranian retaliation, has heightened market uncertainty.

Concurrently, disruptions in Russian oil supplies, resulting from Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries, exacerbate these concerns. The OPEC’s decision to maintain production cuts further tightens the crude market.

While Chinese economic recovery signals rising demand, mixed U.S. inventory reports and robust domestic production moderate these bullish factors, impacting both oil and natural gas forecasts.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas

Natural Gas (NG) price slightly rose to $1.9270, a 0.26% increase. The technical outlook identifies a pivot point at $1.91280, with resistance levels at $1.94680, $1.98020, and $2.01250, suggesting potential upward momentum. Immediate support is found at $1.87970, with further levels at $1.85030 and $1.82140, indicating areas of buying interest.

The 50-day and 200-day EMAs at $1.8571 and $1.8834, respectively, imply a bullish trend. However, a drop below the pivot point could signal a shift to a bearish market. Natural Gas remains buoyant above $1.91280, but vulnerabilities persist below this threshold.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

The USOIL market on April 4 shows modest gains, trading at $85.62, a slight increase of 0.08%. The technical analysis reveals a pivot point at $85.01, indicating a bullish sentiment above this mark.

Resistance levels are identified at $86.10, $86.83, and $87.81, suggesting potential price ceilings. Support can be found at $84.09, $82.98, and $81.84, acting as critical junctures for potential downturns.

The 50-day and 200-day EMAs, at $83.28 and $80.26 respectively, reinforce the bullish outlook. However, falling below the pivot point of $85.01 could trigger a notable downtrend.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Price Chart

On April 4, UKOIL edged higher to $89.57, marking a 0.11% increase. The pivot point is at $89.30, with resistance levels at $89.91, $90.65, and $91.26, suggesting upward pressure.

Support lies at $88.64, $88.08, and $87.31, marking potential retracement zones. The 50 EMA at $87.28 and the 200 EMA at $84.60 support a bullish trend, yet a breakout above the pivot suggests continued upside potential.

However, a drop below $89.30 could lead to a significant downtrend, placing UKOIL in a critical position for determining its next market phase.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

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