Natural Gas News: Market Clings to 200‑Day MA Ahead of Friday’s Storage Report

Natural Gas Futures Hold Above Key Support as Traders Watch Weather Shift

U.S. natural gas futures are ticking higher early Thursday as bulls defend a critical technical zone, trying to build a base above the 200-day moving average at $4.454. Price action has been choppy this week, but the market is leaning slightly bullish — at least for now — as traders weigh moderate short-term demand against the potential for colder weather at the end of the month.

At 14:56 GMT, December Natural Gas Futures are trading $4.527, down $0.006 or -0.13%.

Can the Market Build Momentum Above the 200-Day Moving Average?

The 200-day moving average is acting as a technical pivot. Buyers are showing interest above it, but follow-through has been limited. A close above nearby resistance at $4.582 could open the door for a test of the long-term top at $4.717.

On the flip side, a decisive break below the 200-day would likely trigger a quick slide into support at $4.167 and $4.089 — a pair of 50% retracement levels. The 50-day moving average at $3.987 remains the deeper line in the sand for now.

Weather Models Lean Bearish Short-Term, but Colder Risks Linger

NatGasWeather is calling for light national demand over the next 14 days, with only brief moderate demand early next week. Forecasts show mild conditions across most of the country into November 19, with 60s–80s in the South and 40s–60s across the North.

Atmospheric G2 noted warmer trends through November 26 in the central U.S., though colder signals are emerging for late November and early December. The market is watching this closely — if colder air takes hold in early December, that could be the trigger bulls are waiting for.

Production Remains High — Will It Cap Rallies?

U.S. natural gas output continues to press near record highs. The EIA on Wednesday raised its 2025 production forecast to 107.67 bcf/day, while BNEF pegged current lower-48 dry gas output at 110.8 bcf/day — up over 10% from last year. LNG exports remain strong, with net flows at 17.8 bcf/day, but supply continues to outpace demand.

Gas demand on Wednesday was 86.9 bcf/day, up 6.1% year-over-year, but that’s not enough to tilt the balance for now. Traders are also keeping tabs on rising rig counts — the Baker Hughes total hit 128 last week, the highest level in over two years.

Inventory Data in Focus, but No Game-Changer Expected

The EIA is expected to report a storage build of +34 bcf for the week ended November 7 — right in line with the five-year average. Last week’s injection of +33 bcf was already seen as neutral. U.S. inventories remain 4.3% above the seasonal norm. Europe’s storage is running at 82% capacity, well below the 5-year average of 91% — but not yet low enough to spark panic buying.

Short-Term Outlook: Cautiously Bullish with Weather Risk on the Horizon

The bottom line: As long as prices hold above the 200-day moving average, the path of least resistance leans higher. But momentum has been sluggish, and bulls need a weather-driven catalyst. A colder shift in early December could provide that spark. Until then, upside is possible — but likely limited — unless the technicals and forecasts align.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.