Natural Gas Price Forecast – $2.65 Support Tested as Abundant Supply Suppresses Late-Summer Demand

Natural Gas

The natural gas market has been going back and forth during the early part of the trading session here on Friday as we are just simply stuck in relatively tight consolidation over the last couple of weeks. This makes sense to me. We are getting close to the end of the contract and will start to roll over by October.

So, there could be a little bit of a jump here in the next week or so in one direction or the other, really. And the October contract does tend to be a little bit more bullish than September because you start to talk about cooler temperatures in the United States, something that we certainly don’t have at the moment. I’m giving this analysis with all of the windows open, very comfortable temperatures, no need to burn a lot of natural gas, although it is somewhat attached to electricity. It gets a little bit of a spike when it gets really hot; air conditioning demand can drive it higher, but right now there is no real huge push for that either. So, all things being equal, with the abundant supply, it keeps the price of natural gas somewhat suppressed.

Contract Rollover and Seasonal Demand Outlook

Ultimately, I do think that we’re getting close to the end of the quiet season. And this winter could be particularly interesting as the Europeans may find themselves having to import US natural gas, and that will have a major influence here.

But as things stand right now, we’re in a tight range between the 50-day EMA at $2.87 and the $2.65 level underneath. We’re basically in the middle of it. Looks like quiet, choppy trading to me.