Natural Gas Price Forecast: Faced Resistance After Strong Opening Surge

Bruce Powers
Published: May 29, 2024, 20:26 GMT+00:00

Natural gas continued to strengthen after testing 200-Day MA support, but bearish reactions raise uncertainty about the uptrend’s sustainability.

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Natural gas continued to strengthen on Wednesday, following a successful test of support around the 200-Day MA earlier in the week. The high of the day was 2.85 and it was reached on a gap at the opening of the session. It provided a retest of resistance around recent highs. Last Thursday a trend high of 2.92 was reached before sellers took charge and a pullback began. Although today’s high shows remaining strength in demand for natural gas, resistance was seen following the high and the sellers took back control. At the time of this writing trading continues near the low of the day, which was 2.655.

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Failure Following Strong Opening is Bearish Behavior

Such a bearish reaction to a strong opening is not bullish behavior. It creates further uncertainty as to whether the uptrend may have more upside to go before a deeper retracement, or if today creates a second high that leads to a bearish continuation. The 200-Day MA at 2.46, along with the recent swing low of 2.475 are the near-term price levels to watch for support. However, a retest of support around the 200-Day line could lead to a failure and a deeper retracement that targets lower price levels.

Correction Can Include a Retracement and/or Consolidation

The correction, if it does continue, could take place with a deeper retracement or consolidation. As of today, a possible consolidation range would have a high of 2.92 and a low of 2.475. But since the 200-Day line is so close to the recent swing low, they can be watched together. Notice what is happening with the purple 20-Day MA. It is rising and heading towards the 200-Day line. If natural gas further consolidates above the 200-Day line, the 20-Day line may continue to rise. It is leaning towards a possible crossing above the 200-Day line, which would be bullish overall and a sign that demand is improving. The 20-Day MA is now a match with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2.41.

20-Day MA is Current Trend Support to Watch

For the current advance the 20-Day line is the key trend support line to watch during weakness. If it remains a support boundary the chance for a continuation higher in the price of natural gas remains. Alternatively, a drop below the line increases the chance to a test of support at lower prices. The 50-Day MA at 2.03 being one of the lower price levels. That should be the maximum of a retracement, but certainly support can be seen higher.

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About the Author

Bruce boasts over 20 years in financial markets, holding senior roles such as Head of Trading Strategy at Relentless 13 Capital and Corporate Advisor at Chronos Futures. A CMT® charter holder and MBA in Finance, he's a renowned analyst and media figure, appearing on 150+ TV business shows.

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