Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural gas markets finding buyers

Natural gas markets rallied a bit during the trading session on Monday to open up the week, as we are at extreme lows. Because of this, we could be seeing the $2.50 level finally waking the market back up.
Christopher Lewis
Natural gas daily chart, April 23, 2019

Natural gas markets rallied a bit during the trading session on Monday to kick off the week, but we are at extreme lows so that’s not a huge surprise. The question will be whether or not it is profit-taking or if it is something more substantial. The reality is that the $2.50 level is crucial, not only from a structural standpoint but also from a psychological standpoint as well. After all, this has been the bottom of the longer-term range, and it makes sense that we should continue to see it have an effect on the market. This is just as true as the reality that if we break down below that level, we probably see the market break down rather significantly.

NATGAS Video 23.04.19

One of the biggest structural problems that we have with the natural gas markets right now is that the production of natural gas in the United States is only going higher, not lower. In other words, even though the supply is tight currently, more and more is coming online, and of course we are entering the time of year where you start to see a lot of supply fill those tanks right back up. In general, this is a market that I believe is going to struggle to the upside and although the market is oversold, it may struggle to get above the $2.70 level. If we break down to a fresh, new low then I think the natural gas markets could go down to the $2.25 level, or perhaps if we rally, I think the $2.70 level will be tough to get through. If we do, then we could make a move towards the $2.90 level.

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