Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Consolidate as Storm in the Gulf BrewsInventories rose less than expected
Natural gas prices consolidated and moved slightly lower on Thursday in the wake of the Energy Departments’ inventory report. Expectations are for a 79 Bcf build in stockpiles, according to survey provider Estimize. There is a storm in the Gulf of Mexico which the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration believes has a 90% chance of forming a tropical cyclone in the next 48-hours. The weather is expected to be mild and slightly warmer on the coast over the next 6-10 and 8-14 days, according to NOAA.
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Natural gas prices moved slightly lower on Thursday bouncing near the 10-day moving average at 3.19. Resistance is seen near the June highs at 3.37. Short-term momentum is negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal and moved from overbought to neutral. Medium-term momentum is positive but decelerating as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram print in the black with a declining trajectory points to consolidation.
Inventories Rise Less than Expected
Natural gas in storage was 2,427 Bcf as of Friday, June 11, 2021, according to the EIA. This represents a net increase of 16 Bcf from the previous week. Expectations were for a 79 Bcf build. Prices should have moved higher. Stocks were 453 Bcf less than last year at this time and 126 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,553 Bcf. At 2,427 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.